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#24
11-20-2007, 04:55 AM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
meh. to triple barrel? i dont think i can get him off of a lot plus he might jam on me [/ QUOTE ] Ya but that way when you hit you dont need to c/r like 6x pot. 
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#25
11-20-2007, 10:42 AM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
you have JT for all intents and purposes. i'm folding this unless i have a reason to think he's making a move. [/ QUOTE ] yeah this is 100% bluff catcher, though I find it interesting that w/e he raised with preflop wasn't worth a double barrel as a FD. B/c of this I think I look him up. (though double barreling frequency/dynamic is different in tournaments so you tell me) just saw results post. bakes just out of curiosity do you ever semibluff like A8cc here/why didn't you bet the turn. Were you going to call raise or fold if he bet the turn?
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#26
11-20-2007, 10:45 AM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
well time for results i was villain and had A5cc but he folded and didn't show. so. [/ QUOTE ] So this hand was basically a work of fiction?
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#27
11-20-2007, 11:52 AM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
Making the liberal assumption that preflop the people behind you are calling with any suited connectors or one-gapped cards, on the flop, the probability that you're up against another flush draw given that 2 cards of your suit flopped is 3.12%. Given that you're both chasing the flush, it's going to come in after the flop 29.0% of the time. So you're going to have flush over flush on the turn or river .0312*.290 = 0.85% of the time. And, assuming the responses of this board are somewhat representative of your opponents in a $1K event, a smaller flush is getting folded 70% of the time on the river to your C/R. So you're maximizing your payoff by playing the hand this way 0.0085*0.7 = 0.59% of the time, or 1 time in 168.
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#28
11-20-2007, 12:09 PM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
Making the liberal assumption that preflop the people behind you are calling with any suited connectors or one-gapped cards, on the flop, the probability that you're up against another flush draw given that 2 cards of your suit flopped is 3.12%. Given that you're both chasing the flush, it's going to come in after the flop 29.0% of the time. So you're going to have flush over flush on the turn or river .0312*.290 = 0.85% of the time. And, assuming the responses of this board are somewhat representative of your opponents in a $1K event, a smaller flush is getting folded 70% of the time on the river to your C/R. So you're maximizing your payoff by playing the hand this way 0.0085*0.7 = 0.59% of the time, or 1 time in 168. [/ QUOTE ] Villain will never raise a river lead but will often valuebet river and will occasionally call our raise. A good player also folds to a river bet more often than he will valuebet a hand he would have folded if his opponent leads the river. A5cc guy isnt maximizing vs other flushes he is generally making a +EV play because his opponent wont check behind everything else except a flush. If villain checks behind he would have also folded to a bet.
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#29
11-20-2007, 12:26 PM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Making the liberal assumption that preflop the people behind you are calling with any suited connectors or one-gapped cards, on the flop, the probability that you're up against another flush draw given that 2 cards of your suit flopped is 3.12%. Given that you're both chasing the flush, it's going to come in after the flop 29.0% of the time. So you're going to have flush over flush on the turn or river .0312*.290 = 0.85% of the time. And, assuming the responses of this board are somewhat representative of your opponents in a $1K event, a smaller flush is getting folded 70% of the time on the river to your C/R. So you're maximizing your payoff by playing the hand this way 0.0085*0.7 = 0.59% of the time, or 1 time in 168. [/ QUOTE ] Villain will never raise a river lead but will often valuebet river and will occasionally call our raise. A good player also folds to a river bet more often than he will valuebet a hand he would have folded if his opponent leads the river. A5cc guy isnt maximizing vs other flushes he is generally making a +EV play because his opponent wont check behind everything else except a flush. If villain checks behind he would have also folded to a bet. [/ QUOTE ] The first sentence is debatable, IMO a non-nut flush, especially a big one, will raise a river lead here sometimes. The second sentence, which is the same as the last sentence, I do not agree with. I think a lot of hands are calling a river lead but checking behind.
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#30
11-20-2007, 12:57 PM
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Re: flush vs big river raise in FTP 1k
[ QUOTE ]
meh. to triple barrel? i dont think i can get him off of a lot plus he might jam on me [/ QUOTE ] it makes him fold all those pocket pairs in his range you dont have to bet riv if you blank
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