3/6: tough river spot vs WoT 3 handed

[LucidDream]

Villain is WiltonTilt. Stats are pointless because the game is 3 handed w/ a fish sitting in between us. We have played together a bit at 3/6 and 2/4 over the past few months but not a ton...probably 1k hands or less. My view of him is that he is a TAG who is definitely capable of making moves and overall plays very well and is fairly aggressive. He is definitely adjusting to it being 3 handed very well and he and I are both opening our fair share of pots and doing quite a bit of 3 betting. I'm not assuming he knows who I am but he might, I think he views me as good TAG-LAG player...probably more LAG right now.

I feel like by the river my hand is pretty much face up as being a weak hand w/ a draw. I would normally just fold the turn but I picked up a FD so I called. Now that I have gotten to the river though I am left w/ a decision because I don't think this is a clear fold.

Looking for opinions on all streets especially from people that have played w/ Wilt a decent amount. BTW, PF is sometimes a 3 bet for me here but I had 3 bet him a decent amount the past few hands and didn't want to open myself up to getting 4 bet.


Full Tilt Poker, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 3 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $600
SB: $384.60
Hero (BB): $751

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">BTN raises to $21</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($45) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $36</font>, Hero calls $36

Turn: ($117) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $90</font>, Hero calls $90

River: ($297) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $258</font>

[Eagles]

Why would you want to call?

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you want to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol seriously, if you were to always fold in spots precisely like this one, it would be +EV. Those "big" calls feel absolutely great on few occasions they're correct, but in the long run you're crushed here like 80%+ of the time.

Kirk

[LucidDream]

heh, thats for you to figure out [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] j/k

i will say later but for now just want to get everyone's opinion of the hand w/o putting my entire thought process out there.

[LucidDream]

well for the sake of discussion i will say i am mostly focused on bet sizing and the river card that fell. while in his mind it isn't as bad a J on the river it still isn't a total blank either...and it's a card he can't really have but i could.

and Kirk while i agree kind of, i am usually not getting to the river in this hand except for picking up the FD. i'm not so sure my turn play is the best line either.

[ArturiusX]

So many hands beat you here, and its unlikely he'd spew like this, given your line looks strong in itself.

[LucidDream]

hmmm...i really don't think my line looks very strong. i think it looks like exactly what it is which is a pair and a draw. i really can't have a big hand by the turn and he knows that for sure on the river.

im guessing he puts me on something like KQ,KJ,KT,Q9,J9, and maybe 9Tdd cause i think he knows i wouldn't call the turn w/ dry 9T.

[jfish]

i dont understnad why you dont think this is a clear fold vs a solid player

[LucidDream]

its not that i dont think it might be a fold. i just think based on his bet sizing on the river that he isn't going to show up w/ a 2pr type hand. i think he is expecting me to fold KQ which is pretty much the best possible hand he probably thinks i can have other than a very rare T. it feels like he's making a bet that only a T can call so i think his range is very polarized between straight+ hands and air.

i think J9 = KT basically...i'm not saying this is 100% or anything and that he couldn't show up w/ AA. i just think he bets less on the river w/ those hands.

[jfish]

yea but that doesnt mean it isnt a fold. hes just so rarely 3 barrel bluffing a board like this.