Help me with a rebuy strategy...

[PantsOnFire]

Here are the details:

1. It is a $10 rebuy NL holdem satellite tourney. Expect about 100 participants. It is turbo with 5 minute levels and a 30 minute rebuy period.

2. At the start you can buy 1500 chips for $10, 3000 chips for $20 or 4500 chips for $30. Once the tourney starts, you can only rebuy when you get below 1500 chips.

3. At the first break, 30 minutes in, you can add-on for 3000 chips for $10 or 6000 chips for $20. This is unusually high compared to the rebuy amount.

5. The payout is a number of seats in a big MTT tourney depending on the prize pool.

So what rebuy/addon strategy would you suggest? The reason I ask is that I find it unusual that you can open for triple buy and also that the addons are double the chips for the same price.

[SuperUberBob]

This isn't live, right?

Anyways, here's what I do:

Shove and rebuy, shove and rebuy, shove and rebuy again and again and again. Gamble like crazy during the rebuy period. Double re-buy if possible. Always rebuy for the maximum. As long as you don't have rags, shove pre.

[Sherman]

Just rebuy for the maximum and gamble a bit early. If you get up to like 15K, play a bit more conservatively until the rebuy is over. Then play your regular game. That's my strategy anyway. Not sure that is a great one. I don't play rebuys too often.

Sherman

[hERESY]

[ QUOTE ]
Just rebuy for the maximum and gamble a bit early. If you get up to like 15K, play a bit more conservatively until the rebuy is over. Then play your regular game. That's my strategy anyway. Not sure that is a great one. I don't play rebuys too often.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely should play them, Sherman.

Just squeeze when you get the opportunity to, b/c people make huge PF calls, and get ~6 buyins then wait out the rebuy per.

The reason I think that you all should be playing rebuys is is because directly after the rebuy period the level of play is of a much lower caliper than your avg 20/180, and you get to mess around with 200+BB.

[PantsOnFire]

There are on average 100 players and the cost is $10+$1 to start and $10 for each rebuy or addon. The payout is 25 seats into a $200+$15 200K guaranteed tourney.

So my goal is to get a seat as cheap as possible. I have done this once using 6 rebuys and two addons for $81 to win $215. I am trying to find a way to do this cheaper.

Here is the tourney situation at the end of the first break when the rebuy period is over. Most everyone does a double addon so the stacks generally range from 7500 to 20000 with most being around 10-12K. The blinds I think are 100/200 at the start of the real tourney but do go up every 5 minutes. There are still usually around 90 players left. However, not many drop out until the blinds get to 200/400. By then the average M starts to drop dramatically and it becomes an all-in fest very quickly.

My thinking is I can get to the real tourney and at least 7500 chips for $30. If I go a little crazy early, I can maybe hit 15000 chips. But it has seemed to me that playing better in the second half but at a cheaper cost might be more profitable.

I can't wrap my head around this. Let me know if I have left out any pertinent details.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just rebuy for the maximum and gamble a bit early. If you get up to like 15K, play a bit more conservatively until the rebuy is over. Then play your regular game. That's my strategy anyway. Not sure that is a great one. I don't play rebuys too often.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely should play them, Sherman.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I know. I've played them before. But being back at school has limited the number of MTTs I can play right now.

[jay_shark]

This is a pretty good question that I asked myself a while back .

Lets simplify this game to 10 players and assume for the time being that there's no rebuy . Next to each person's name is their initial starting stack and the "real" worth of those chips .

1)$12
2)$11
3)$10
4)$9
5)$8
6)$10
7)$10
8)$9
9)$10
10)$11

These numbers are the players' long term hypothetical real worth of their initial starting stack. Notice that they add to $100 . Because each added chip actually decreases your marginal returns , then each additional 1500 unit added on , will not exactly increase your overall worth by a factor of 2 .

ie , player 1's real worth is $12 with a stack of 1500 chips . When he rebuys for another 1500 , then his real worth may be $12+$11 . If he buys twice , then his stack may be worth $12+$11+$9.5 . Clearly , this player should not rebuy a third time since the added chips increase his worth by $9.5 which is a little less than $10 . For instance , if no one rebuys , then he probably should rebuy once and no more !

So we wish to rebuy until our added chips is slightly worth more than the amount it costed to receive these chips .

Since the blinds increase every 5 minutes , I would guess that your advantage over the field assuming equal stacks is not that great . In any case , your goal is to have more chips than the average number of chips if you're better than the field . How much more is certainly a question of interest and can be approximated using similar arguments that I've made .

[jay_shark]

Now we can use this type of reasoning and extend this to satellites . We can find an upper bound on your investment if we make additional assumptions on the real worth of playing in a $200+$15 tourney .

Lets say that you would be an average player and your real worth is exactly the same as your buy-in .

So if we have a 25% chance in placing in the top 25 , then we shouldn't invest more than ~215/4 = $53.75

If we have a 20% chance in placing in the top 20 , then we shouldn't invest more than ~215/5 = $43 .

If you're above average and guess that you would have a 40% chance of placing in the top 25 , then you shouldn't invest more than ~215*0.4 = $86 .

[gsyme]

Early in a tourney, $EV ~ CEV. This is true for sats as well. I have no clue why you should put a stop-loss on rebuys if you think you're a winning player in this tourney. I don't get why it's a good strategy to go insane and pray for a big stack. People who do that are my main source of income in rebuy sats.

Let the "winning stack" be the average stack size at the end of the tourney, which you can guess at before addons and calculate after addons. When you have about 1/3 a winning stack is where I'd say $eV and CEV diverge significantly.

Also, with an addon that large, it doesn't seem like an extra buyin will get you an extra $10 worth of chips.