I folded!

vmacosta · #1 09-26-2007, 04:11 PM

prob wrong spot lol
villain is 30/20

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG raises, MP folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds.

jba · #2 09-26-2007, 04:24 PM

yep this is bad

thepizzlefosho · #3 09-26-2007, 04:25 PM

yeah. you almost certainly have at least 6-outs getting 5.2-1 on the turn and I think you can give yourself credit for at least 1 implied BB on the river.

I actually prefer a turn bet here because the villain may think you c/r'd an Ax or the flush draw and you could fold out a lot of over card non-spade hands. If he raises it isn't a disaster because you can call and fold the river UI.

the fold obviously is that bad since you don't have the best hand, and you aren't getting terrific pot odds, but I would have probably b/c the turn.

JSmith2007 · #4 09-26-2007, 04:36 PM

B/C the turn for sure IMO.

Checking the turn just shows you're afraid of a flush, which opens up his bet out to display the flush or even Ax, figuring you didn't have Ax either and if so, his kicker may be like a 9 or 8 and be better than your possible A5, etc. etc.

b/c the turn would be first option, c/r would be my second option and some would just say c/c which wouldn't be bad either. Either way, c/f isn't great here with your outs and odds.

sharpie · #5 09-26-2007, 04:39 PM

I don't see anything wrong with check/calling the turn, 30/20s are more likely to raise a better draw than fold it IMO. How do you guys play T9 here?

jba · #6 09-26-2007, 04:42 PM

wow, I seriously doubt he's going to fold two broadway cards here even spadeless and you're going to get raised a lot. i think betting is pretty bad.

thepizzlefosho · #7 09-26-2007, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wow, I seriously doubt he's going to fold two broadway cards here even spadeless and you're going to get raised a lot. i think betting is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this is some of my running good coming out because I feel like I get a fold here a decent enough amount of time to b/c.

I think c/c is fine, but I think c/r is a disaster because if you do it you have to commit a 3rd bet on the river as a bluff if you don't improve and you are going to get called down a lot when you try to screwplay a LAGTAG.

Heisenb3rg · #8 09-26-2007, 04:45 PM

Nah I disagree with most people here, dont bet the turn, what's an UTG range folding on this turn?

He easily could be planning to raising all sorts of his semi bluffs like KQo with a spade etc, low pair FSD, Ax etc

I think the probability of you drawing dead is very slim because any flush draw in UTGs range had FD + overs on the flop, so is probabily popping it up there.

I think you have 6 outs the vast majoirty, probabily weighted to almost 7.
However the J is now no longer to the nuts (KQ) and your going to 4 bets when this happens.

You probabily are getting 2 bets the majority of the time on the river, so my guess is your implied odds are in the 1BB range or so.

I think its a very very close call

jt1 · #9 09-26-2007, 04:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wow, I seriously doubt he's going to fold two broadway cards here even spadeless

[/ QUOTE ]

Drawing to a fairly likely dead gutshot/6 overs in a small pot is a fold in my book. I may be weaker than average or better than average depending on your pov but at least 20% of villains would think like me.

edit: I forgot that villain will have a spade half the time

vmacosta · #10 09-26-2007, 08:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yep this is bad

[/ QUOTE ]
Hopefully this is the first in a series of posts about folds. I plan on folding a lot (or at least until w$sd gets to 47) in the next few weeks and posting a few of them.

So when i posted this i figured it was a bad fold. but then i just stoved it and i think the fold is either close or good. no reason to think we have good implied odds.

my stoving skills might suck though so anybody care to take a stab?