Big fold with top pair and nfd

[mythrilfox]

jesus this thread gives me a headache. first of all, i think this is a clear open pf in most 5handed games, and probably semi-marginal in 6handed games (though in certain games i dont mind folding it) it's not a big deal either way, so let's stop talking about it.

second of all, primate, almost nothing you have said in this thread makes any sense.

"If we must play this on the flop then raise and commit to the hand."

uhh, we have over $170 left to play and incredible implied odds if someone else overcalls with a flush draw, or if the leader has a flush draw himself. I'm not saying raising is bad (though i think it is), i'm saying that this statement doesn't clarify anything.

as to why i think raising the flop is bad, he is only going to put more money in the pot here with 8h7h,7h5h,9hXh or a set. anything else is folding. we are 33% against this range, so the only way raising can be good is if he folds a significant portion of the time, which isnt clear at this point. i think these hands make up a massive portion of his range, so flop call seems pretty obvious.

"Your only a serious dog to a set."

only? that sounds pretty bad...

"Your raising UTG with this hand for exactly this scenario right?"

this scenario is one in 50 thousand, i wouldnt exactly call it a "dream scenario", and i wouldnt say how we play it affects our overall winrate that much either.

"That turn card is a bonus and sickener for the villain. It was one of your outs that you should have raised with on the flop."

it also limits his hand range significantly.


"You raised UTG so represent an UTG holding."
the problem is HE'S not representing a hand weaker than an utg holding, so representing an utg holding does us very little good.

op: this was well played. hard to get paid off on flush, and he prob has a set.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
someone check the numbers, but my basic feel is call. unlikely to have high reverse implied and we have a lot of outs yo

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, no we don't. We either have 8 outs or we are ahead already like always.

[Mat Cauthon]

Jay, what do you think of my post? You're the one with the best read on villain.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
Jay, what do you think of my post? You're the one with the best read on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duno I'm hungover and all the numbers are hurting my head. I'll try and give it a better shot this evening.