2007 Pac 10 football thread - Page 4

AzDesertRat · #31 09-09-2007, 11:36 PM

SEC=overrated stay at home conference

when was the last time Florida played a home and away OOC game outside the state of Florida?

and Ducks do have the ugliest uniforms of all time.

BobJoeJim · #32 09-09-2007, 11:56 PM

My current rank of teams in the Pac 10, complete with thoughts. Hopefully this will provide enough discussion fodder for us to stop talking about West Virginia.

#1 - USC (1-0): They were lackluster against Idaho, so haven't really proven or disproven anything yet, but for now there's no reason not to still see them as the consensus #1 in the country, much less the conference.

#2 - Cal (2-0): Did what they needed to against Tennessee, Jackson is a monster, they certainly hold their preseason spot. Weak two definitely provided a little bit of a question mark as they struggled with Colorado State, but I can chalk that up as a hangover game, plus the game wasn't actually as close as the score would indicate. 58 points allowed in two games is something to keep an eye on though.

#3 - UCLA (2-0, 1-0): This is tentative. Ben Olson has only completed 51% of his passes this year and was 13/28 against BYU. The running game wasn't much better against the Cougars, with only 3.0 yards per carry, but they held off a tough (I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here) opponent anyway. This offense will have to get quite a bit better though, or else it will be a quick fall to the bottom half of the Pac Ten. Beating Stanford was, well, beating Stanford.

#4 - Oregon (2-0): 39-7 @ Michigan. Wow, I wish I knew what this meant, but this year it may not mean as much as I'd like to think. Michigan looks both very weak overall, and very vulnerable to exactly what Oregon runs. Dixon has looked very sharp ever since halftime of the Houston game, but he looked sharp in the first two games last year too. More impressive is 300+ rushing yards in both games, the offense looks legit so far. Defensively Michigan got a lot more yards than points, and Houston moved the ball well other than their four turnovers. If the breaks start to even out this team could give up a lot of points down the road, but right now it looks like they can keep up offensively. On the other hand, beating Michigan might not mean anything right now, and there's a decent argument to be made that Houston would likely have won if the turnover margin were even.

#5 - Arizona State (2-0): Two big wins over two bad teams. The run defense has been stifling, holding both opponents under two yards per carry. This team could be 7-0 before they play Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, and USC, but I'd still like to see what they do against someone with a pulse first. Carpenter has been solid, but not spectacular considering the hype and the opposition.

#6 - Washington (2-0): Syracuse looks horrendous, and Boise State looks to no longer have a capable quarterback so their run as a perennial mid-major power may be over. For this reason Washington's spectacular start has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's still been spectacular. With a true freshman at the helm the season will likely be up and down, but this team seems to be clearly on the upswing and should be a threat to everyone they play. OSU next week will tell us a lot about how good (or possibly overrated) this team is.

#7 - Washington State (1-1): Rebounded nicely against SDSU after getting pounded by Wisconsin. Rebounding against SDSU doesn't mean much though.

#8 - Arizona (1-1): The defense is good. Tuitama can be good, sometimes. It's starting to look like they may not turn the corner any time soon, though, with too much inconsistency offensively. Look for an upset or two, but no prolonged success.

#9 - Oregon State (1-1): Not only did they get destroyed by Cincinnati, but they also got outplayed by Utah until Utah's QB got hurt. Offensively Bernard is good, but can't do it all by himself. The offensive line is bad, and the QBs are worse, so points will be at a premium. Defensively the front seven is great, but the coverage is awful. Things don't look good in Corvallis right now.

#10 - Stanford (0-1, 0-1): Stanford is still Stanford.

bernie · #33 09-10-2007, 01:17 AM

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#6 - Washington (2-0): Syracuse looks horrendous, and Boise State looks to no longer have a capable quarterback so their run as a perennial mid-major power may be over. For this reason Washington's spectacular start has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's still been spectacular. With a true freshman at the helm the season will likely be up and down, but this team seems to be clearly on the upswing and should be a threat to everyone they play. OSU next week will tell us a lot about how good (or possibly overrated) this team is.

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Overrated?

Since when are they even rated? I wouldn't put them in the top 25 yet. Most that are doing it will likely take them right back out after next week.

They should lose to OSU next week. I'm figuring on that. Penciled that in well before the season started. But this team is head and shoulders above last years team. Last years team almost beat USC and Cal, both @USC and @Cal.

They don't have alot of 'great' players but the chemistry seems to be clicking alot more this year which may help them overachieve a little.

If you remember the team of 3-4 years ago, which was absolutely sh*tty, you'd realize just how big these 2 wins are and just how far they've come.

The Beavers started slow last year also. Then beat USC on the way to a 9-4 record.

AZ St. could be a suprise this year if Erickson gets them rolling. But that might happen next year after Erickson raids the Jr. Colleges and gets the jail parolees out for work release. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Though he tends to get thugs, he does build good teams.

Pac 10 may be quite a mess this year. Great for the competition, but bad for the rankings.

b

pwnsall · #34 09-10-2007, 01:34 AM

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#5 - Arizona State (2-0): Two big wins over two bad teams. The run defense has been stifling, holding both opponents under two yards per carry. This team could be 7-0 before they play Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, and USC, but I'd still like to see what they do against someone with a pulse first. Carpenter has been solid, but not spectacular considering the hype and the opposition.

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They did kill a team at home who beat a team at home who played a team you have ranked 2nd sort of tough IIRC. Transitive property, sort of joking. Colorado may be terrible or not... I do not know. I think I'd drop UCLA after Olson looked kind of bad against BYU.

BobJoeJim · #35 09-10-2007, 01:44 AM

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#6 - Washington (2-0): Syracuse looks horrendous, and Boise State looks to no longer have a capable quarterback so their run as a perennial mid-major power may be over. For this reason Washington's spectacular start has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's still been spectacular. With a true freshman at the helm the season will likely be up and down, but this team seems to be clearly on the upswing and should be a threat to everyone they play. OSU next week will tell us a lot about how good (or possibly overrated) this team is.

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Overrated?

Since when are they even rated? I wouldn't put them in the top 25 yet. Most that are doing it will likely take them right back out after next week.

They should lose to OSU next week. I'm figuring on that. Penciled that in well before the season started. But this team is head and shoulders above last years team. Last years team almost beat USC and Cal, both @USC and @Cal.

They don't have alot of 'great' players but the chemistry seems to be clicking alot more this year which may help them overachieve a little.

If you remember the team of 3-4 years ago, which was absolutely sh*tty, you'd realize just how big these 2 wins are and just how far they've come.

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I didn't say they were "overranked", I indicated that it's possible they're "overrated". If Syracuse and Boise turn out to both just be terrible (not an impossible occurence) it could turn out that Washington actually isn't that much better this year after all, in which case they would be overrated at this moment. If they lose to OSU by 40, it would suggest that perhaps this is the case, and all I was doing was pointing out that it is possible, not claiming it was likely to actually be the case.

I do understand how big those two wins are and how far they've come. Hence, my references to a "spectacular start" and a team "clearly on the upswing". Not to mention putting them sixth which I never would have done for the past couple years.

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The Beavers started slow last year also. Then beat USC on the way to a 9-4 record.

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True, but that doesn't mean a slow start is something to make a habit of, and it certainly doesn't mean that starting slow indicates likely success. The Beavers are 118th!!! in passing efficiency, nationally right now. Yvenson Bernard ran wild on Utah, but was held to 1.9 yards per carry by Cincinnati. Lets look at some OSU offensive ranks, nationally:
Rushing Offense - 71st
Passing Offense - 80th
Pass Efficiency - 118th
Total Offense - 86th
Scoring Offense - 106th
And since those numbers indicate a lot of three and outs, this number becomes relevant: Net Punting - 104th
Also, Turnover Margin - 116th

The defense is good, especially the front seven which is fantastic. I can give credit where it's due, they have the #3 rushing defense, are tied for 8th in sacks, 17th in tackles for loss, but are 48th in passing defense and 55th in pass efficiency defense. Not terrible, but considering the pressure they put on QBs, it doesn't say great things about their coverage or their vulnerability to big plays.

My point is, I've watched both of their games, and I think it's an understatement to call it a "slow start", and from what I've seen of the rest of the Pac Ten, only Stanford looks worse right now. It's not like Cincinnati and Utah are powerhouses, there is no excuse for offensive numbers that bad.

pokergrader · #36 09-10-2007, 01:52 AM

As a USC fan, the PAC10 scares me this year. Running the table is going to be tough, and having watched Booty in every game he has played, I don't buy the fact he is the next leinart or palmer.

And as a huge PAC10 homer, I am glad that the conference is finally getting some respect.

BobJoeJim · #37 09-10-2007, 01:55 AM

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#5 - Arizona State (2-0): Two big wins over two bad teams. The run defense has been stifling, holding both opponents under two yards per carry. This team could be 7-0 before they play Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, and USC, but I'd still like to see what they do against someone with a pulse first. Carpenter has been solid, but not spectacular considering the hype and the opposition.

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They did kill a team at home who beat a team at home who played a team you have ranked 2nd sort of tough IIRC. Transitive property, sort of joking. Colorado may be terrible or not... I do not know. I think I'd drop UCLA after Olson looked kind of bad against BYU.

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I thought about dropping UCLA, but couldn't justify if for lack of anyone to elevate. Oregon still worries me too much, specifically defensively. You could argue that being 97th in total defense (106 vs. the run, 70 vs. the pass) but tied for 29th in scoring defense indicates a "bend but not break" defense, but I see it as disaster waiting to happen. Clearly it's due mostly to turnovers, (#3 turnover margin nationally) and those seem more likely to be good fortune than something to expect to continue. Eventually someone will convert those yards into points.

Beating Michigan is of questionable value, given how solidly they are down on the mat right now, and getting outplayed by Houston in the first half looked ugly. I can't quite justify moving the Ducks ahead of UCLA *yet*.

As for ASU, like I said, they haven't proven anything. UCLA's position is definitely tentative, and Oregon could take it with a good performance against Fresno, ASU could take it eventually (though it will be hard to prove much against SDSU), and Washington has a shot to grab the spot if they look good enough against OSU. Right now though I just can't *quite* justify anyone leapfrogging the Bruins... check back next week.

Moozh · #38 09-10-2007, 01:59 AM

Exciting start for us Ducks fans. I don't care what people say, the Michigan win was huge for us. But now, looking at the Pac10 schedule, I'm terrified.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, USC, and UCLA all have the potential to beat any team in the Pac10 any given week. For the Ducks, I'm excited we get both Cal and USC at home (we have to win one of those games). But now I'm worried about the road game at Washington. A one loss season for any team in this conference should guarantee a BCS.

BobJoeJim · #39 09-10-2007, 02:10 AM

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#5 - Arizona State (2-0): Two big wins over two bad teams. The run defense has been stifling, holding both opponents under two yards per carry. This team could be 7-0 before they play Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA, and USC, but I'd still like to see what they do against someone with a pulse first. Carpenter has been solid, but not spectacular considering the hype and the opposition.

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They did kill a team at home who beat a team at home who played a team you have ranked 2nd sort of tough IIRC. Transitive property, sort of joking. Colorado may be terrible or not... I do not know.

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As for your transitive property, that's one of the perils of week two analysis. Does Colorado State beat Houston in two weeks, while Cal returns to form and blows out LA Tech next Saturday? If so, maybe Colorado's OT win isn't a huge black mark, and ASU's win over the Buffaloes is valuable. Colorado vs. Florida State will also help decipher the situation. ASU can definitely gain a lot more ground in my mind through OTHER teams winning than they can by winning themselves next week. For the moment, though, I'm going to look at the fact that Cal was up 34-14 before CSU scored twice in the last four minutes, and continue to assume both Colorado schools suck until proven otherwise.

BobJoeJim · #40 09-10-2007, 02:17 AM

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Exciting start for us Ducks fans. I don't care what people say, the Michigan win was huge for us. But now, looking at the Pac10 schedule, I'm terrified.

Washington, Oregon, Cal, USC, and UCLA all have the potential to beat any team in the Pac10 any given week. For the Ducks, I'm excited we get both Cal and USC at home (we have to win one of those games). But now I'm worried about the road game at Washington. A one loss season for any team in this conference should guarantee a BCS.

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Definitely huge. I'm born and raised in Eugene, and could not have possibly been happier watching that on Saturday. The Pac Ten is scary top to bottom (well, top to ninth) this year, though, like you say. The last few seasons have taught me my lesson about getting too excited about early success, and I've seen a lot of weaknesses in those first two games that I'm worried about. If Dixon's inconsistency shows back up... *shudder*. Here's hoping they can keep it up, GO DUCKS!!!
</homerism> I'm trying to be objective on this thread.