Odd Quiz, introductory concepts pt. 2.

[carnivalhobo]

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wtf are good bluff cards in hand 2 :/

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spades Q's

edit: lol 9's arent a blufff

[carnivalhobo]

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wtf are good bluff cards in hand 2 :/

[/ QUOTE ]pretty much just spades imo. We cant say we can stack him on a T but that we are going to use a J/Q as a bluff card to rep a better 2pr.

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Q works with JT too

[Casper05]

yeah my bad, 7 > Q though vs an avg villain. It has to be blatantly obvious that there is a possible straight on board for me to use that to try to get my opponent to fold 2 pair.

[dragonystic]

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edit: lol 9's arent a blufff

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way to pounce on that technicality!

no its not a bluff, but knowing his cards makes it something you can use in your arsenal to push him out with. if you didnt know he had K8, you wouldnt feel too great about a 9 hitting.

[RainbowBright]

HAND 1 Call. Cause you don't want him to push on the flop. Equity will change alot based on the turn card.

HAND 2 Call. We need 14-1 to draw to our Ten and we can probably bluff a spade. Not to mention we're getting some good odds to hit a 9 and get paid off a little more...

[Womble]

Raise 1
Fold 2

[bilbo-san]

I think hand 1 is a pretty basic call, waiting to improve your equity before putting money in. It's analogous to when your opponent (whose cards you do not know [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) donks a drawy flop into you and you suspect he wants to bet-3-bet and you have a strong (but not monstrous) hand. In those cases, we don't know our equity (because our opponent has a range of hands, not one hand), but we probably estimate it at similar percentage to our equity here.

Hand 2, though, I see different than others. I don't think intending to bluff turns is a very good plan AT ALL, here. I see it a little different.

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lol @ people folding when you know what your opponent has.

caspers line is correct for hand 2.

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We are stacking him if we hit our T, can improve our hand with a straight draw, and have some pretty damn good bluff outs as well.

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My goal as a LAG is to read hands well enough that I am bluffing at pots where I know my opponents hand is weak.

Thus, I think it's pretty bad to try and bluff someone off of 2 pair. WE know that Top & bottom pair isn't all that hot a hand if the turn is, say, a Q or J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but relying on VILLAIN to be smart enough to know this is not a hot plan. He could easily put us on a straight draw that paired and is bluffing, or on a worse 2 pair like J9, or on a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that paired the turn card, etc. I'd need a ton of history and a good read to think that villain is capable of folding 2 pair to a bet.

(Then again, I'm on a horrific downswing, so maybe I've just lost confidence, lol).

On the other hand, villian could check a lot of scary turn cards, which means our "pot odds" are a lot higher than we think if we get to take a free turn card (which often brings us extra outs), and we might get into a situation where we can make a thin value bet on the river that we could NEVER make if we didn't know his cards.

For example, say the turn and river are non-spades that make us a running straight. Villain might easily call a 1/3 pot bet thinking we are bluffing missed spades. Or Villain might bet his 2 pair hoping we'll try and bluff-catch with a king. Etc.

So we're about 2.3:1 dogs, and villain is offering us 2.2:1 odds. I'd say it's a +EV call because you will get a free turn card a ton if the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a Q, a J, maybe an Ace, or a six. Plus, you will get lots of free turn cards if he likes to check-raise turns when he gets floated.

So, combining our implied odds for hitting the turn (pretty sure he always stacks off on a T), the free card we get, and the chances of making a small bit of money on the river if we hit, and the bluffing opportunities on VERY scary rivers (eg 2 running spades), this is a (marginal) +EV call.

[dotbum]

1
a) call
b) I would look to get it in on a non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], non-A turn, assuming villain is aggressive enough to go for that, I think it's more profitable.
c) give up any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], bet, 3bet blank, he won't give us a chance to rep a stronger A over two streets, so have to check that too.
d) fold to a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], raise a blank...fold an A.

2
a) fold
b) I haven't got the stones to take an unknown opponent off 2 pair, unless the board is 4-flushed or 4-straighted, so I'm drawing to a T or runner-runner straight/QQ/JJ/AA.
c) check behind. I suppose if he checks a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to me I might look to bet, intending to bet again on the river if checked to again, maybe raise something that looks like a blocker.
d) fold unless we draw out, then raise.

[BobboFitos]

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i think its slightly hypocritical to say we're stacking him on a T and also say we can bluff scare cards.

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i dont, alot of villains will incorrectly put hero on a flush draw and not care about the ten. ala, you can both bluff the flush card and get paid on the 2pair card.

[blah-blah-blah]

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i think its slightly hypocritical to say we're stacking him on a T and also say we can bluff scare cards.

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i dont, alot of villains will incorrectly put hero on a flush draw and not care about the ten. ala, you can both bluff the flush card and get paid on the 2pair card.

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obviously we're gonna be able to bluff some of the time and stack him some of the time. I just think that we're not gonna stack him as often as we're gonna be able to bluff the flush. dunno if that makes sense/is relevant but i was mostly commenting on people who gave me the impression that they thought there were a ton of cards that we can bluff ie. flush cards + straight cards + A's while also giving me the impression that we could stack him when a T hits. I was just saying that if we can bluff all those scare cards then we aren't stacking him a ton when a T hits, or if we stack him when the T hits then our bluff outs are probably cut down.