Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[AsydRayne]

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Actually, I am coming round to the idea of calling the turn in #1. He has a hand he wants to play, as evidenced by his flop check/raise. We may well only have seven outs though, but taken to an extreme, if we check/fold a board pairing club but bet 2/3 pot when we hit one of our seven outs, we will probably average enough to win with our play.

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If we only have seven outs, we need to make 125 on the river when we hit, which means that we basically have to shove (we have $140 left on the river). And he has to call us every time. He will not have a set every time and he will not call a shove with it every time, so the plan of check/folding the dirty outs and betting the clean outs heavy doesn't work IMO.

[bozzer]

warning: uNL player.

using only 'at the table maths' I would

1. fold. i don't think we can count on the implied odds if we hit a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] river if we just call, and I'm not sure we have enough fold equity given the checkraise.*


2. I would normally want to fold AQo OOP to a 3b, but I could see a call here if willing to stack off with TPTK.*

I don't like the 2barrel on that turn card.

In this hand either our overs are good and we have low implied odds, or we are drawing to a K only and we have decent implied odds. If we're drawing to 10 outs we need 4:1 pot odds and we're getting 3:1. I think we might be able to extract ~$20 on the river if we hit, so case a is a thin call for me.

If we're drawing to 4 outs I think we'd need to average getting a PSB out of him on the river. That seems a bit steep, but achievable, so another thin call.

I think raising would be a bad idea since we'll be drawing mega thin if we get called and we might get shoved on a lot which would be annoying.


3. Villain could have a nut flush draw here as much as a set, no? If we think he'll fold a set to our represented flush on the river I think we can call, but if he won't we probably have to fold since it will be difficult to win the pot if we both miss our draws (he could check to induce a bluff with the missed FD with a set too much).


Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?



*I guess people checkraise lighter at 200nl so maybe we do have enough FE, idk. Obviously the 3b could be light given our and his position/image, but it's still not a great spot.

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?

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If the pot is $40 and the bet is $20 to you but you have a 1/6 shot of winning - if you call, the pot is $80, which is four times the bet to you. You therefore need to make $40 on the river on average.

[tozzy]

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subq: if he repops from the button, once again, its up to stats, if hes like 27/24 type

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Id label a tag/lag as something like 24/20 or so, vpip higher then 22 for sure and pfr close to vpip.

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i feel this is incorrect, tho its just about the terminology. i guess general consensus is roughly:
nit<15/13>tag<24/20>lag

edit: oh, i should read more carefuly. as for a "lag/tag", saying something in between, your stats seem good.

However, the more I think the more I believe that we cant really fold #1. Calling seems bad, so I push. I guess its really calling<folding<pushing or smth.

[Chomp]

Great post BF. uNL donk here saying...

1. Meh. We don't have the direct odds, but I'd probably base the decision on game conditions/image/recent history, as the odds aren't a million miles off and maybe our IO's are ok in certain spots. In a complete vacuum, fold.


2. Sub question 1: Fold to 3b. Ok, he "defends his cbets religiously", but AQ OOP is just too nasty a hand to proceed with.

Main question: 34. I am awful at judging second barrell spots, but here I'd say our read on LagTag who "defends his cbets religiously" makes this a bet. Also, offering this player the opportunity to float is bread-and-butter to him.

Sub question 2: Fold. If we don't fire again, I think we've given up the right to call. Again, we don't have direct odds to call to 6 outer, and we don't even know if all those are clean winners.


3. This is a bit like 1. as we don't quite have the direct odds but this is closer IMO as our outs are more hidden than in 1. That said, I think I fold as a spade on river is either going to kill us or our action. Yeah, actually I go with fold.

[Rotterdaum]

1) fold

2) if we check, the best play is to fold to his 25. Betting the turn is good, but if called, i think we'll be firing just about any river

3) looks like a spade draw or a pp 99-QQ. Best standard play with given info is to call turn,

-check behind a 7 or a 9 river,
-maybe call a bet on a 7 or 9 river given a specific read based in part on the bet size,
-raise a bet on a non spade T or a 5,
-call a bet on spade T or a 5,
-raise a bet on any other non spade river.

folding turn doesn't sound bad either but the above is probably more +EV, and much better in meta-game value

[rockusteady]

hand 1- It's between calling and pushing for me. I'm leaning towards calling because the c/r looks strong and his turn bet doesn't really narrow his range that much, i think. if I do hit on the river- My image will determine how much to bet.

hand 2- A player who defends his button religiously is usually a very capable floater- so this situation sucks. he could have sets/TP/MP/a draw/ complete air. The trickier he is the more likely I am willing to c/f. If he's a super insanely floater time I might even c/r (ok probably not- I am a lag fish). We also have 4 pure outs and it sucks to get raised. I think i pitch it.

3- Push. I'm surprised more people haven't advocated this. That king is a good card for us. Most nits will bet more on that drawy turn to protect there sets. I think usually he has like 99-JJ here and is just trying to find out where he stands. I think he has a K next to never.
He'll fold his FDs here and other hands like A8 and PPs most of the time, too.

I think he only calls us with sets and pair + combo draws, and even then we have outs.

[Rotterdaum]

push sounds good in the 2nd hand actually.. it's about 160 more, and there's no way he can call with a draw, 99-QQ, or even a K

[David Nicoson]

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#3. A bad player (140, very loose passive) limps UTG, and we (240) isolate raise 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button to 10 total. BB cold calls, as does the limper. (BB has 383 and is a nit where this cold call is AQ-AT, JJ-22, possibly a little wider range given UTG's presence, but not looser then that). Flop (~30) comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and they check to us. We timebank a little bit contemplating a cbet (validity in checking) but opt to fire away with 23. BB calls, and UTG folds. Ok, lost the bad player, got the good player, terrific. Turn (~76) comes the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and BB bets 44. What do we do?

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I wouldn't try to isolate this villain based only on your description here. If he's bad because he's too loose (i.e., he calls to much), I want to have a hand that's ahead of his range hot-and-cold. If he tends to call preflop liberally and then fold a lot after the flop, then it's fine.

I'm having trouble parsing your description of the BB's range. Possibly wider but not looser? Are you're saying that the range listed represented a looser than normal range for him? At any rate, I'd think a range that includes ATo would also include KQs, which is one sort of hand that I put the BB on after this action.

I think the right play is to call here and bet a lot of rivers. If he checks a spade, then I think we have a good chance of stealing it. If we hit our straight on a non-spade, then we're getting paid.

[David Nicoson]

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Three somewhat common occurrences. I love making these quizzes and its been a little while since my last one. I'm going to sleep in a little bit so if this attracts any attention I'll post my thoughts. I'm sure when I have a date established with my book being published these types of (self congratulatory/promotionary) posts will increase in frequency. That said, feel free to argue with any play up to the decision but understand that the hand is played largely how I would've played it. Obviously I am not egotistical to assume that is the "only" way the hand can be played, or the optimal way, but just be content knowing that I play it that way. Since this is SSNL, we'll assume the game is NL200 6max.

#1. We're in the CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we (200, unknown image) raise to 8 pf. BB (245, you have a few notes/stats but just a typical player with somewhat loose TAG stats) defends his blind. Flop (~17 minus rake) comes A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], checked to us, we bet 12, BB check raises to 32 total. We call. Turn (80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] villain bets 40. What do we do?


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If you can't spot the nit in your first half hour at the table, then you are the nit.

Call for implied odds. If it turns out we're wrong and he won't pay off on the river, we're losing only $8 in EV by making this call.