Stud hi: What's your plan when 3-bet on 3rd by an overpair?

[Spladle]

electrical,

You do realize that because of the money in the pot, we should continue to play even if we are a dog against the raiser's range, right? Because it seems like you do not. If we are actually ahead of the raiser's range then folding is just laughably bad.

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And if it is true that we're sacrificing profit, it's a tiny marginal profit from the equity in the ante pool. Subtract the rake and there's even less reason to fight over small potatoes.

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This just is not how the best players think. If a play is sub-optimal then you should not make it. Also in reasonably-sized games the rake comprises a miniscule percentage of the pot and can effectively be ignored.

This line, by the way

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If you're playing three-handed, that's a different story.

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indicates a gross misunderstanding of how stud is played. You should be much more inclined to fold in a three-handed game than in an eight-handed game. This is just common sense.

[Poker CPA]

"But when everyone folds to a live A looking at an 8 and a 2 in a full ring game, I expect him to be raising a ton, probably at least 80%"

Anything less than 100%, that player will be crushed by a solid stud player.

[Spladle]

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Even though he is correct in so folding, this is better than the alternative of giving him a free card. (So I am arguing, Poker CPA thinks otherwise and he may be right.)

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The fun thing about poker is that it's simply impossible to solve. Basically the correct play here depends not only on your opponent's third street range, but how he will play on the later streets. Optimal strategy would probably indicate randomly calling or raising in this situation a certain % of the time (since optimal strategy assumes optimal opponents), but if we know how our opponent deviates from optimal strategy, then exploitation is possible (and preferable).

[SweetLuckyMe]

It depends on what kind of mistakes he's apt to make later in the hand. If he's solid and not apt to make any then I'm much more apt to fold. If he's apt to give me cheaper cards than he should and not punish then I'm more apt to play on.

[SGspecial]

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The point is not that we care what the A's profit is, but that if it is abnormally high in this situation it indicates that we are playing exploitably tight.

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After thinking about it, I can express my thoughts a little better. You are afraid folding is a FTOP error, so you don't want to fold. You raise. Given even a very high percentage of the Ace's hands being Axx, he is being offered acceptable odds to play, and when he does choose to play, he will often have you in very bad shape. So, your raise is unlikely to induce an error in his play, and when it does it is a small error, but the raise itself can be an error on your part, and when it is, it will be a large error compounded over many streets. Folding third can only ever be a small error (relinquishing your equity in the ante pool), and that will be the case only some of the time.

The raise creates a situation where you cannot offer him unfavorable odds almost regardless of his holding. I think this is exploitable moreso than folding.

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It's times like this when I wish propokertools offerred a stud simulator. Their model for razz is awesome, and while 2dimes is a lovely and faithful site, typing in ranges and watching the sim spit out results is a great luxury.

That said, if Vil has AAx (or a wired overpair), you're a 2:1 dog. If it's a steal, you're a 2:1 fave. Anything else (other than trips) is somewhere in between. If you're worried about FTOP mistakes, ask yourself this: If he did show me AA, how would I play it? If he showed me 42 rainbow in the hole, how would I play it? If the answer is the same, then you have your answer. Except of course if you're lousy at hand reading, then just fold and accept the fact that you're unlikely to ever beat this game.

[Spladle]

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It depends on what kind of mistakes he's apt to make later in the hand. If he's solid and not apt to make any then I'm much more apt to fold. If he's apt to give me cheaper cards than he should and not punish then I'm more apt to play on.

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Folding third is basically never correct. The decision is between calling and raising.

[Spladle]

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If you're worried about FTOP mistakes, ask yourself this: If he did show me AA, how would I play it? If he showed me 42 rainbow in the hole, how would I play it? If the answer is the same, then you have your answer.

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The answer to these two questions is never the same. In the first scenario you would fold or call depending on the size of the pot. In the second you would always raise.

[Poker CPA]

Excellent work SG. I like it because its so simple.

So Spladle make a decision, you only have 10 seconds. Call or raise?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

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If you're worried about FTOP mistakes, ask yourself this: If he did show me AA, how would I play it? If he showed me 42 rainbow in the hole, how would I play it? If the answer is the same, then you have your answer.

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The answer to these two questions is never the same. In the first scenario you would fold or call depending on the size of the pot. In the second you would always raise.

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I don't think you always raise if you have split eights and you know he has (24)A. If he would fold to a raise, but would auto-bet fourth, wouldn't calling on third be the correct play?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

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I think folding 3rd has to be wrong here. If I'm folding 3rd here the A should be completing 100% and showing a huge profit.

As it stands I think the A should be raising a very large % anyway, which is why I think the reraise is profitable.

The hands you listed, except AKx, are all the hands he will be calling my raise with. But that ignores all the hands he'll be folding (any non-hand that has a card equal to or below 8).


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OK, I'm lazy, so I admit I haven't tried to figure this out yet. If the ace is completing 100% and folding to a raise as much you suggest, have you figured out how close to an automatic profit you are if you are raising with a random 8 vs a random A that folds "non-hands" to a raise?