KQ suited in the hijack

bsnone · #1 05-08-2007, 06:34 PM

Live 8/16 game. Hero is TAG fairly regular to the game. Villain is LAG in the BB who just sat down and has been whining non stop about losing $5K at 40/80 over the weekend.

UTG limps, folded to Hero in Hijack K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] raises, folded to BB who calls, UTG calls.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, UTG folds, hero smooth calls.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

villain bets, hero raises, villain 3 bets, hero?

*TT* · #2 05-08-2007, 06:44 PM

Your description shows that he lost a lot, we can assume it was from spewy/bluff ridden play as is common at CA and this is a good board for a spewmonster to bluff you out. Since your going to call a river bet vs this donkey if you think he will check to you on the river if you cap then thats the best move. You have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s + 3 T's + if he is spewing with 2 pair another K may be good (lets call it one out to be safe) = 13 outs. Those times you don't improve you don't lose any additional bets (unless he is capable of leading the river, at which point he probably has a straight and your going to fold), and when you do improve you earn an extra bet. Its good to be in position!

Harv72b · #3 05-08-2007, 06:57 PM

Is it capped at 4 bets? If it is, I'd probably go ahead and put in the cap, calling a river bet UI. If it's not then I'd call the turn 3bet & call a river bet UI.

While I don't think you actually have enough equity in the pot to make the cap, I do think that the metagame effects of capping it (especially when you river your flush/straight) vs. this opponent make it worthwhile. He's already steaming, and a beat like that when he's holding 33 or KJ or whatever would probably be enough to send him to full blown tiltworld.

invictus33 · #4 05-09-2007, 02:20 AM

I'm seeing a show down in this spot vs. a LAG about 99% of the time. We have a metric [censored] ton of outs to improve and there is a chance we're good already. If 4 bets is the cap then I'd say it's about even with a smooth call, flip a coin to decide. I'm calling any river UI and probably going to raise if I do improve. Extracting from LAGs is fun in some many ways!

*TT* · #5 05-09-2007, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it capped at 4 bets? If it is, I'd probably go ahead and put in the cap, calling a river bet UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

bsnone · #6 05-09-2007, 11:26 AM

So for the rest of the hand.

Hero caps the turn (cap is 4 bets)

River 6 of clubs.

Villian Bets, hero calls, Villian turns over 9 3 for two pair. Hero pukes, walks away from table to cool off.

*TT* · #7 05-09-2007, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So for the rest of the hand.

Hero caps the turn (cap is 4 bets)

River 6 of clubs.

Villian Bets, hero calls, Villian turns over 9 3 for two pair. Hero pukes, walks away from table to cool off.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Harv72b · #8 05-09-2007, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he likely is toast. But it's still 13:1, and you can't rule out a LAG going buck wild with a lesser/equal king or some combo draw at least that often. Especially one who's steaming.

*TT* · #9 05-09-2007, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If hero caps and the villain leads out with a blank on the river - he is toast, and can toss his hand in the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, he likely is toast. But it's still 13:1, and you can't rule out a LAG going buck wild with a lesser/equal king or some combo draw at least that often. Especially one who's steaming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its 13:1 because the hero let the pot get that big - we have to keep this in context. A lag is not going to fire away with anything less than top pair top kicker here, we are toast more than 95% of the time. Bayes Therum tells us that hero has to be good just 8% of the time for the call to be +EV - no doubt its close but I can find a fold in a live game.

terencetsao · #10 05-09-2007, 06:45 PM

so i guess the turn raise turns out to be -EV