What do you do here? (PLO8 $400)

[davebreal]

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I really was at a loss as to what to do here. On the one hand, my bottom two pair could very well be good. On the other hand, his range is so wide, that he could easily have hands that kill me.


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generally a slightly ahead or way behind situation here. very easily against a set, top&bottom, or top pair w/ OESD.

what does davebreal usually do here? re-raise all-in, and pay off JJxx.. obviously.

[franknagaijr]

I ran a quick spreadsheet calc, and I also see a fold as follows:

Assumption 1: If Niss repots the flop, V will fold pure air and call with anything else.
Assumption 2: If Niss repots, he will commit if V repots. This makes his EV for these scenarios as follows:
JJxx=$90 (can hit one of two aces to win)
J9 or J4=$181 (can hit the the pair villain does not have to win, or an ace)
OESD = $653 (Niss is ~65% to win)
Jxxx not two pair =$607 (V has one more out than OESD)

If you put together a chart, if you have 30% reason to believe that V has JJ and 70% that V has air, it's a losing play (EV $460), and if you redistribute the 70% among the other possibilities, it's still a losing play.

This is a marginally winning play if you are 60% sure villain has air, or if Villain would push with an overpair to the board. Otherwise, your EV is negative here.

Caveat: I'm not DaveBreal.

Edit: I must have top-pair/OESD blindness. I missed factoring in that combo, and it obv makes the numbers worse. Fold.

Edit 2: I also didn't factor in V having backdoor low draws, of which Niss has none. Number drop, obv. Still a fold.

[bbartlog]

if you have 30% reason to believe that V has JJ

Sounds rather high based on description of villain as lagtard. But I think that the possibility of villain having a backdoor low does make things quite a bit worse for us; it basically means that we're no longer significant favorites over a wide range of (OESD+low junk) hands. I guess maybe this is a fold after all.

[niss]

Thanks for the posts everyone.

I folded to the re-raise. In addition to being unable to put villain on a hand, and as Dave said it's an ahead by a little or behind by a ton situation, it was in my last orbit and I didn't want to piss away my profit for the night.

[niss]

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if you have 30% reason to believe that V has JJ

Sounds rather high based on description of villain as lagtard. But I think that the possibility of villain having a backdoor low does make things quite a bit worse for us; it basically means that we're no longer significant favorites over a wide range of (OESD+low junk) hands. I guess maybe this is a fold after all.

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Also, just to correct something someone said above, I had no low draw. I was counterfeited by the 4. If my low was live I think I would have shoved.

[Split Suit]

fold against this type of villian. also, i think ur questioning ur CBet is a lil too results-oriented. i think the CB is fine, albiet i dont think i PSB here cuz my CBets usually rnt PSBs (usually 75%PSB).

fold is good here, this is nowhere near a +EV edge to push.

[Rootabager]

Fold is def. the best play. Your hand is not that strong now, and you hate almost all turn cards in the deck. You dont even have a backdoor low, or flush draw.

[Shabamabam]

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Fold is def. the best play. Your hand is not that strong now, and you hate almost all turn cards in the deck. You dont even have a backdoor low, or flush draw.

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Warning, I am a huge PL loser.

But this seems like the most solid advice. You're gonna hate almost all turns and you have no backdoor draws of any sort. So you can either re-pot or fold. Against anything that WILL CALL your re-pot will most likely have you crushed or have you at a flip.

[Mendacious]

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So you can either re-pot or fold

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qft

Calling here is terrible. Prolly lean towards fold. Villian has to assume you have AA, and he either thinks you will fold to pressure (most people won't fold AA on a flop like this) or he likes his hand against AA. Unfortunately, your bottom two pair are only nominally better than AA, and you have no low prospects. I probably fold unless I think I need to make a stand pretty badly, or am kinda tilty.

PS I really think villian did NOT have JJ there. I would expect something more like J9 with straight possibilities.