Ford Motor Company

[krishan]

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Maybe Im just crazy but when I see Ford at $8 a share something clicks in my head saying "Wait isn't 8$ super low for a huge company like Ford?" Maybe I am overly optimistic like you say tho.

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Share price is just share price. 8 can be expensive and 50 can be cheap.

Krishan

[ItalianFX]

That's more short-term thinking. In the long-run prices will move towards their true value, while in the short-run, prices will deviate above or below that true value. When the spikes are "sell sell sell" over some kind of news, then yes, "buy buy buy" - IF you think the TRUE VALUE is still above that price.

In the case of Ford, they are just in bad shape and their true value is probably closely related to the current stock price.

[ilikeaces86_]

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In the case of Ford, they are just in bad shape and their true value is probably closely related to the current stock price.

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Interesting... I seem to get the feeling that they are restructuring well and are serious about turning the company around and back into profitability. Hope I'm right.

[ItalianFX]

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In the case of Ford, they are just in bad shape and their true value is probably closely related to the current stock price.

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Interesting... I seem to get the feeling that they are restructuring well and are serious about turning the company around and back into profitability. Hope I'm right.

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You may be. I don't really know much about Ford. I don't do any stock investing, and very rarely do any company research. I just have heard a few things about the automobile industry and I'm basing my own conclusions. By all means, if you have done your research and feel good about it, jump in and go for it.

[squiffy]

"Excluding special charges, Ford's North American auto operations posted a $2.7 billion loss in the quarter compared with an $86 million loss in the year-ago period."

It's certainly possible to make money by betting on F. If it recovers, you will make a lot.

But are you interested in gambling or in investing?

In other words, if you always play 3,2 offsuit in TX holdem and make huge bets with it, some of the time, you will hit a full house on the flop and win big money. But over time, statically, you should lose money always playing 3,2 offsuit.

So if you are an investor, you might want to calculate the chances of F surving and the chances of it going bankrupt. And you might want to estimate your likely profit if it survives, and your likely loss if it goes under.

In poker, sometimes the odds make it worthwhile for you to play with the second or third best hand, say a two pair or four flush, even if you know you will lose 60% of the time. Because, the other 40% of the time, you will improve and make a huge of money, enough to offset the losses and to give you a long term profit, over 1 million hands played.

If 10,000 stocks identical to F will go bankrupt 50% of the time, but will survive 50% of the time and return 10x your initial investment, then it might be worth it to invest in F.

But it's hard to quantify your likely risk and likely reward. I am not saying it cannot be done. But it's hard to do with precision.

So are you going to bet on F or are you going to invest in F. And if you are going to invest in F, then what facts are you relying on to make your case.

If you are just betting on a hunch, then it's not that helpful to me. If your unsubstantiated hunches make you big money over the next 30 years, more power to you.

But I prefer to have some rational basis for my investments.

In other words, if you have evidence that only 50% of troubled S&P 500 companies ever go bankrupt, then there is some statistical basis for assigning a survival rate of 50%.

And if the average troubled S&P 500 company returns 10x your money, when it survives, then again, you have some data to back you.

Again, I am not saying it's a bad investment. I am just saying that based on the information presented, I cannot figure out what my likely risk and likely return are, which makes it a gamble for me.

I know I can get 5% in a CD with no risk. I am pretty sure I can get 10% long term from a Vanguard Index fund with normal market risk.

What data do you have for F that suggest it will recover. I am not saying you cannot make this play. I am just saying that if you make the play, you need to do more rigorous analysis than it feels right.

[dazraf69]

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The UAW's only hope to save some of that pension/medical benefits is to compromise now, before it's too late.

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Union reps are more concerned with their own wellbeing than that of their members. Unfortunately also, history has shown that structures such as the UAW rarely make the "right” decisions and sacrifices "now".

[r0eKY]

i have a ford plant up the street and most the people there are over paid and underworked, and it seems alot of them do drugs in the parking lot before going to work, glad to see it go

[dazraf69]

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i have a ford plant up the street and most the people there are over paid and underworked, and it seems alot of them do drugs in the parking lot before going to work, glad to see it go

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priceless

[maxtower]

I have heard from a couple people that GM has some of the worst corporate fat. There are a lot of people just slipping through the cracks in these car companies.

[Pendimethalin]

TM will soon takeover the world!! muahaha...err move along nothin' to see here...