$100nl: The Two Nines Times

[west_eh]

I'm short into the session. Haven't won a big pot yet. Lost one medium sized pot vs. a short stack all-in on a bad beat. If anyone is paying attention I am playing tag.

Villain is quite tight so far, but again over a very small sample. Most people like this at $100nl seem to be reasonable and straightforward. However, they might do things like make loose calls OOP every once in a while; with trouble hands, suited connectors, etc.

Does anyone do anything differently after the flop reraise? Then how about the turn?

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$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$160.00</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$107.70</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$103.10</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$85.05</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$149.80</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$86.05</font>)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is CO 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, SB calls $3, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $18

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($56, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB goes all-in $122.3</font>, Hero ???

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On the flop, I figure he's doing this with most of the time w/ his drawing hands. This is a flop that missed me most of the time, so it's a good place to semi-bluff. I DON'T think he'd be doing it with quads or a full house. He would also reraise with most of his one pair hands, and most trips. So, how's this for a range?

JJ-88. 98s, 78s, 55 (there to represent 55 and below), 65, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, KhJh, 5h4h. I would define this as his non-bluffing range.

That gives the following pokerstove calculation:

Board: 6h 7h 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.173% 50.79% 01.39% 18100 494.50 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 47.827% 46.44% 01.39% 16551 494.50 { JJ-88, 55, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh, KhJh, 98s, 87s, 6c5c, 5h4h }

Odds on the flop are call $18 to win $56; 32% equity needed for break-even.

Question 1) How often is he bluffing, and what is my equity vs. his bluffing range?

On the turn, we call $75.60 for $207.20. 36.5% equity needed for break-even.

Question 2) How does his range change on the turn?

[TwoToGo-Grave]

He very well could be bluffing at the flop with the heart draw or even the 8-9.
On the turn, I honestly doubt he's bluffing. His raise was called on the flop, and he has to have something to push here. However, the AJ of hearts or something is certainly a viable possibility. He's likely protecting here with his shove, or he really just puts you on a big hand.
As far as the turn decision...
Easy fold. There's no way he doesn't have a boat, and straight, or a bigger pair. What can you possibly beat here? Maybe a flush draw, but it's unlikely and if you are ahead, you have several outs to beat you. If you're behind, you only have two to win with. Just fold and move on.

[jakeduke]

i think the flop is fine, and i fold the turn. imo villain has a 6 a ton and thinks you can't fold whatever hand you b/c the flop. if you want to play the hand differently shove the flop, but i'm not sure that's a very good idea.

[h_ven]

I think villain could he have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or even 89o here a lot of the times. He's proably putting you on a pretty decent hand trying to push you off, or even wanting a call with 11 or more outs.

As played I fold the turn.

[west_eh]

[ QUOTE ]

Easy fold. There's no way he doesn't have a boat, and straight, or a bigger pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, a boat doesn't raise the flop.

How many straights are out there? Th9h? 5h4h? That's about it...

And most bigger pairs are going to be reraising preflop.

I think all those hands are possible, just not all that likely.


Anymore thoughts?

[west_eh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain could he have 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or even 89o here a lot of the times. He's proably putting you on a pretty decent hand trying to push you off, or even wanting a call with 11 or more outs.

As played I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will rephrase your supporting evidence: If he has one pair hand, or if he is bluffing, or if my hand is actually stronger then he thinks; then you would think that would lead towards a call, not a fold as suggested.

[Paul Thomson]

it's weird because i think a fullhouse will raise the flop, but i don't think they shove the turn unless they're on a high er thinking level.

I think it could be 89 a decent portion of the time...especially with hearts. u would tilt the [censored] out of him if u called and won.

[jlocdog]

At this level this is rarely a bluff. Saying that, this is rarely a boat as well as players tend to not want to pay them too fast in order to extract. This looks like 6x where x is most likely an A or K and suited. Once the turn comes, he realize he is never folding but also fears the countless draws out there. So he does the right thing and jams. Well played by your opponent.

[poopvagina69]

I agree with jlocdog that this looks like trips, a6s that was overcalled oop... looks a lot like 56 too. It makes sense for these hands to shove the turn. It seems less likely an unknown is doing this with a slowplayed big pair. And you can't really just assume he will play his draws this hard on the turn.
This would be a neat way to play a big pair (to me at least, but I suck) if he knew you would continuation bet pretty much any flop.