NBA Week 4 Thread (11/19-11/25)

[digdeep]

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llabb - would you share your record thus far this year in NBA. I'm amazed that the number of games you take ...

thx

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Yes, I make a ton of plays, as I am comfortable betting even small edges (by my perceptions). I have posted for the last couple years here, 56% last season (06-07), 57% the previous playoffs (05-06), and 55% the previous season (05-06). Because I take a lot of games with small edges, there is greater variance with my results. I have seen fluctuations between 48% and 63% during most seasons, but it has worked out well so far.

I realize that most people would say that I take far too many plays, and perhaps I do, but it's more profitable to take the small 53% plays as well and end up averaging 57% for the season rather than sitting back with only a few plays and simply coasting to 61% on the soft lines. Many say that it is tough to beat the NBA taking tons of games, but I believe otherwise. I have seen another poster on another forum who picks every single game, both the side and the total, and is 57% over 207 games this season. I don't go quite that far yet, but I believe that it is very doable.

This season, I started off horribly for the first week, and have since adjusted, improving each week. Weekly results are:

Week 1: 12-15, -5.42u
Week 2: 17-14, +0.23u
Week 3: 13-8, +2.90u
Week 4: 13-8, +4.87u

I suffered through some early beats where the larger unit plays lost, and am now being more careful about varying my unit size. Flat betting would have been more profitable for me so far, although I believe that it is just variance on a few plays. I am starting to see 2H plays better, although I am not always around during those times. All results so far this season below.

All Sides and Totals: 55-45, +2.58u

Sides: 22-19, -1.18u
Totals: 10-10, -0.11u
1H Sides: 2-4, -2.31u
2H Sides: 8-5, +1.73u
2H Totals: 10-7, +1.45u
Team Totals: 3-0, +3.00u
Player Props: 0-2, -2.30u
Donk Teasers: 1-5, -3.85u

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Thanks much for sharing. Interesting insights on your part... I will definitely keep those elements in mind as I begin to bet the NBA on a regular basis.

Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?

The below seem like they may be good plays - but it is pure speculation on my part; pts are just guesses -
1- If favorite is winning at halftime by > 10 pts -> bet dog 2H
2 - If dog is up > 10pts at half -> bet favorite 2H
3 - If lead by either team is < 5 -> bet favorite 2H

2H Totals -

Bet under if 1H goes over? vice versa
Bet over if 1H goes over / vice versa

I'll have to test these hypotheses myself - but I thought I would ask if you have observed any of aforementioned to be true/false...

Thanks.

[llabb]

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Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?

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I don't play trends and don't use any mechanical systems for the NBA. Better to work on your capping and understanding of the teams and situational dynamics.

If you're looking for a system to utilize in the meantime, while working on your capping, then there is one at another forum that appears to have some substance, where you bet the 2H total in the opposite direction of a 3pt game total line move.

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The below seem like they may be good plays - but it is pure speculation on my part; pts are just guesses -
1- If favorite is winning at halftime by > 10 pts -> bet dog 2H
2 - If dog is up > 10pts at half -> bet favorite 2H
3 - If lead by either team is < 5 -> bet favorite 2H


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My thoughts on these:

1) Cannot use this blindly. Do not think it would be good with big favs playing inferior teams. Perhaps with more closely-rated teams where your capping favors the dog.
2) Again, cannot use this blindly. Can use if your capping favors the fav, although it depends on the game flow and matchups.
3) Do not like this at all.

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2H Totals -

Bet under if 1H goes over? vice versa
Bet over if 1H goes over / vice versa


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What are you saying here? Is this a typo? In any case, there is no mechanical trend I utilize. Simply analyze the pace and game flow and cap the 2H.

(Un)fortunately, I do not think there are any shortcuts here. You simply need to put in the work to become a good capper. Far easier to become a good line shopper and look for inefficiencies, although more time consuming. FAQ and other threads have good info on becoming a better sports bettor.

[llabb]

Boston/Golden State Over 214, +117
Cleveland -4, -110
Cleveland/Minnesota Over 192.5, -105
Phoenix -13, -110

[digdeep]

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Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't play trends and don't use any mechanical systems for the NBA. Better to work on your capping and understanding of the teams and situational dynamics.

If you're looking for a system to utilize in the meantime, while working on your capping, then there is one at another forum that appears to have some substance, where you bet the 2H total in the opposite direction of a 3pt game total line move.

[ QUOTE ]

The below seem like they may be good plays - but it is pure speculation on my part; pts are just guesses -
1- If favorite is winning at halftime by > 10 pts -> bet dog 2H
2 - If dog is up > 10pts at half -> bet favorite 2H
3 - If lead by either team is < 5 -> bet favorite 2H


[/ QUOTE ]
My thoughts on these:

1) Cannot use this blindly. Do not think it would be good with big favs playing inferior teams. Perhaps with more closely-rated teams where your capping favors the dog.
2) Again, cannot use this blindly. Can use if your capping favors the fav, although it depends on the game flow and matchups.
3) Do not like this at all.

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2H Totals -

Bet under if 1H goes over? vice versa
Bet over if 1H goes over / vice versa


[/ QUOTE ]
What are you saying here? Is this a typo? In any case, there is no mechanical trend I utilize. Simply analyze the pace and game flow and cap the 2H.

(Un)fortunately, I do not think there are any shortcuts here. You simply need to put in the work to become a good capper. Far easier to become a good line shopper and look for inefficiencies, although more time consuming. FAQ and other threads have good info on becoming a better sports bettor.

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Thanks for reply... I wasn't looking for any hard and fast answer, nor was I trying to find the holy grail. I was ultimately speculating on two different strategies/concepts:
1- mean reversion
2- momentum/continuation

I presented some crude theories in my previous post to represent both concepts - any or all of which may be effective/ineffective.

thx

[CrushinFelt]

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Lakers -1.5, -110
Lakers/Indiana Under 208, -110, 1.5u
Golden State -2, -110
Dallas -9, +108
Dallas/Toronto Over 176, -110, 1.5u
Denver -7, -110, 1.5u
1H Denver -4, -115

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To clarify - that DAL/TOR is over 196 ...

I like that play as well. Both teams averaging > 100 pts per game - DAL 110/gm and TOR 103/gm.

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Sam Mitchell is my new favorite coach: his decision to start fouling with the score 98-90 with 45 seconds left is the best coaching decision of the year so far IMO.

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I was on this under. Unreal.

[GooseHinson]

I was on Dallas -8.5, thanks for the meaningless points with less then 1 second to go Barn.

[llabb]

Boston 1H -6, -110
Dallas +2.5, -110
Dallas/Houston Over 189.5, -110, 1.5u
New Orleans -7, -105
Indiana/New Orleans Over 196, -110
Detroit 1H -6.5, -110
Phoenix 1H -7, -110
New Jersey/Portland Under 184, -110

Team Totals:
Boston Over 111.5, -110
Dallas Over 93.5, -115, 2u
New Orleans Over 101.5, -110
Cleveland Over 98, -110, 2u

[silentbob]

On which sites do you bet team totals?

[aufan91]

YTD 13-6 +5.4u

Celtics -11
Hawks +8
Mavericks +2

1u on each.

[BJLTNYK]

No time for writeups and forgot to post last night but:

LAL -2.5 10u

Only play of the night.