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  #11  
Old 11-15-2007, 09:41 PM
Willd Willd is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

It's definitely wrong to complete with <20 bbs here. The chance of flopping a big draw or 2 pair plus is about 1 in 7 and most of that is draws where when you get it in you will either be a slight dog or slight favourite. The implied odds aren't close to being enough to complete here, it's probably a fold in a 100 bb deep cash game as well unless people play really bad.
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  #12  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:40 PM
starchyy starchyy is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

Let this one go pf, check raise the flop (hoping to see a free turn).
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  #13  
Old 11-16-2007, 02:21 PM
WJL WJL is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

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As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

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I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

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Agreed, there ain't much FE here, but I think shoving is a lot better than calling a shove in this situation.

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I wanted to spend a moment expalining why I think this way. Given that we can see the results, the question of whether the set would call is clear. That is not the real problem though. In fact, 77/88/99 are just the sort of hands we would win a lot of chips from if we hit. And like you said, it is likely a lot of those hands are going to call a shove anyway.

The hands we really have to worry about are better flushes and straights . . . and there are a ****load of them:

A10h+ K10h+ q10h+ 8xh 10x

Most of these are NOT going to call a shove on the flop. Obviously, J10/106 are not folding, and most 2-pair/sets are going to call. This is exactly what we want. If we miss everything, GG. If we hit, long as the board doesn't pair, we beat everything that calls us except the made straights, and we beat most of them with the flush (we lose to the ones that end up with a better flush). Unfortunately, a lot of those draws above are likely to shove if we don't, and then we have a difficult situation.

So . . . as played, shove the flop. CRAI will often just end up calling shoves with better draws.
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  #14  
Old 11-16-2007, 03:24 PM
Dunkman Dunkman is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

Fold pf fold pf fold pf. Do you hear me, don't play this [censored] from the SB...FOLD!!!!

I'd prefer to check/shove this flop, because if we bet and just get called the turn is really awkward. Also, it's not the end of the world if the flop checks through. As played you have to call the shove.

Also, I glanced at some other posts, and shoving 28k into a 6.8k pot is retarded, what the hell are you people thinking?
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  #15  
Old 11-16-2007, 06:19 PM
jonnyd jonnyd is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

i'd rather check shove than raise/shove but it doesnt make much of a difference since a check/shove on this board wont have much fold equity
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  #16  
Old 11-16-2007, 09:16 PM
WJL WJL is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf fold pf fold pf. Do you hear me, don't play this [censored] from the SB...FOLD!!!!

I'd prefer to check/shove this flop, because if we bet and just get called the turn is really awkward. Also, it's not the end of the world if the flop checks through. As played you have to call the shove.

Also, I glanced at some other posts, and shoving 28k into a 6.8k pot is retarded, what the hell are you people thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sir, we understand that telling this man to flap his arms looks retarded, but if you look closely, you will find that most of us told him he shouldn't have jumped out of the freaking airplane without a chute to begin with. We're just trying to help the man come to grips with the realities of his originally tragic decision. The argument now centers on whether he should land on his left foot or his right. Don't make a lot of difference either way.
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  #17  
Old 11-16-2007, 11:46 PM
hamnegger hamnegger is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

[ QUOTE ]
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As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

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I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

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um yeah i would like never believe you had j 10 .and i never fold a set on the flop EVER
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  #18  
Old 11-17-2007, 05:19 AM
WJL WJL is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

[/ QUOTE ]

um yeah i would like never believe you had j 10 .and i never fold a set on the flop EVER

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I guess that would depend on your reads, wouldn't it?

I folded 77 on a 987 board in a live game Wednesday night and saved my stack . . . saw the cards.
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  #19  
Old 11-17-2007, 06:48 AM
swede554 swede554 is offline
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Default Re: Should I be folding this?

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fold preflop, check/shove flop

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