preflop

[Oink]

You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you the same guy who disagreed with stox's preflop recommendations as being too tight? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you the same guy who disagreed with stox's preflop recommendations as being too tight? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but I cant go lower than 22 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


On a serious note. This is another spot where we either cant extract the empirical reults or will just never get enough observations.


But I have one other loosish observation.

Over that 1½ years or so I have regularly proposed "too loose" preflop play and been berated by various posters. Usually you get useless one liners and nobody has ever presented any evidence proving that their "tight is right" nit approach is optimal. Then I tell people I have good results with it and 2 weeks later I debate the same play with another guy...


I make the plays I do, I dont claim to know that all of them are +EV. I know some of them are. Like expanding my OTB range quite a bit past Stox proposed range or calling suited junk in BB getting 5:1 or opening KJo UTG. These are all plays I have been told several times CAN NOT be +EV and yet they are all with a winrate significant larger than 0 on a 98% level...

The annoying part is when people who dont really have any proof of their POW tells you its -EV. In particular when they just use them silly 1-liners.

Seriously. STOP FOLDING!

Oh and i know I am coming off as a crybaby now

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]

I make the plays I do, I dont claim to know that all of them are +EV. I know some of them are. Like expanding my OTB range quite a bit past Stox proposed range or calling suited junk in BB getting 5:1 or opening KJo UTG. These are all plays I have been told several times CAN NOT be +EV and yet they are all with a winrate significant larger than 0 on a 98% level...


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, this is my kind of evidence. much better than "cuz stox says so".

[ QUOTE ]
On a serious note. This is another spot where we either cant extract the empirical reults or will just never get enough observations.


[/ QUOTE ]

if we never get enough observations to determine the correct play in a particular situation, that means it doesn't affect your winrate and so it doesn't matter what you do in that situation.

more precisely, if two good players with 300k+ hands each who follow different strategies in a particular situation compare their results and the difference is not statistically significant then either:

1. the ev for the strategies are almost the same, OR
2. one strategy is better, but the situation happens so rarely that it doesn't affect your winrate in any significant way.

[vmacosta]

oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew you'd say it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are hands are you playing that I am folding?

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew you'd say it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are hands are you playing that I am folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

you play:
22, A7s, ATo, K9s, KQo, QTs, JTs

Currenly I don't play 22, but I play ~ a notch lower on all the A's and I often play qjo, kjo, kto.

According to stove I have pretty damn good equity with a bunch of other hands--even j8s! I'm starting to think it makes sense to at least call with the 3-bettors entire range and maybe even add a few hands. I don't know if whether he's the button or sb makes a difference cuz there's more in the pot when he's the button and his range is usually ~ the same.

This stuff is all speculation, so if others have opinions/data, please come forward!

[Oink]

I think it matters a bit whether the 3-bettor is OTB or SB. As you said there is a little more dead money in the pot when he is OTB, however you will more often be able to get position postflop when he is SB.

How much eq exactly does J8s have? Did you consider that if CO has a 35-40% range and if he caps TT, AJs, AQo, KQs then it will get capped 1 in 8 or 7. (Capping range is about 5% of total hands).

So Hero's odds are gonna be ~ 0.13*9:3 + 0.87*7:2 ~ 3.4:1. (Ok that had a smaller effect on our odds than I expected for some reason.)


This is an interesting topic. As you move up you get yourself into a whole lot of these spots and never calling anything is a clear mistake in my games. I wouldnt be surprised if calling J8s or 65s is +EV