September Low-Content Thread - Page 24

PokerBob · #**231** 09-25-2007, 09:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
clearly youre going to quit school so you might as well do it now.

[/ QUOTE ]

quitting school is a very big mistake.

stinkypete · #**232** 09-25-2007, 10:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
clearly youre going to quit school so you might as well do it now.

[/ QUOTE ]

quitting school is a very big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

not if the MPC has your back

mike l. · #**233** 09-25-2007, 10:43 PM

when youve got a gambling problem has heavy as too many does, there's no way around the inevitable.

MitchL · #**234** 09-25-2007, 11:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
when youve got a gambling problem has heavy as too many does, there's no way around the inevitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive been close too quitting many times. Its like the poker gods want me to, bc I run terrible in the summer and over xmas break, but like god during the school year and especially during exams.

daryn · #**235** 09-26-2007, 12:55 AM

how often should one expect to lose 150 big bets in a day?

daryn · #**236** 09-26-2007, 01:10 AM

whoops, make that 200 big bets. ty

MitchL · #**237** 09-26-2007, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
whoops, make that 200 big bets. ty

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually quit before I get to that number in a day, but if I added up hrs as opposed to sessions I am sure I have had 2 or 3 200bb downswings in a 12 hr period at much lower stakes. I'm sure you feel much better now.

daryn · #**238** 09-26-2007, 01:28 AM

i don't even feel bad to be honest, i'm just amazed. i don't feel bad about losing money and i don't really feel good about winning money. but the things i have seen today have been pretty amazing. of course this whole year has been pretty amazing.

PokerBob · #**239** 09-26-2007, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
when youve got a gambling problem has heavy as too many does, there's no way around the inevitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

if this is true, all the more reason for him to stay in school.

tessarji · #**240** 09-26-2007, 04:19 AM

I don't know if this is the type of answer you are looking for, but:

Many estimates indicate an standard deviation of about 17BB/100 for 6-8 player hold em poker. Let's assume your day was about 2000 hands online. The standard deviation goes as the sums of the squares so sqrt((17^2)x20) is about 76BB/100.

If you are exactly a break-even player, a result of -150BB would be at minus two sigma, so it would happen about 2.25% of the time you play 2000 hands.

If you are a winning player at 1.5 BB/100 and you lose 200 bets, that is an 'effective' swing of -230BB, which is close to -3 sigma. That should happen 0.12% of all 2000 hand sessions.

This is assuming a normal distribution which is fairly good estimate for medium term poker results.