Another hand I probably misplayed

[The Dude]

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I thought that the interesting part of the hand is its maybe not a no-brainer call for the button if he has KQ, AQ, KK, given two bets cold and the action to the point.

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I think button having KQ or AQ is a stretch, but perhaps he will dump AA or KK on the river. Probably not though. Especially when your read on him is that he thinks he's a good player but IMO really is not, he hates folding postflop, and usually calls down with overcards on ragged boards.

Good luck getting him to fold his overpair. Also, assuming BB has less than Qs up 90% seems like wishful thinking to me.

[gameoverjc]

did bb show up with q-j or 10-8?

[tessarji]

Results:

When I raised, the button folded rather quickly, and then the BB frowned, shook his head once, and also threw in his cards.

You would have to have played with the BB to understand that he is indeed likely betting the river with a bluff or a medium pair. He would check-raise a straight or full house 499% of the time there, so the only hands that were likely to beat me were QJ, Q9, or a retardedly played 5.

Since it was impossible to fold the river given that, the only decision was if it was more profitable to call (and possibly pick up an overcall) or to raise (and possibly fold a slightly better hand behind me).

[Crusher19]

if you think someone is donk bluffing the river then your raise makes even less sense, because it makes it impossible for you to get paid off. the only chance a river raise makes sense is if you think you can knock the pre flop raiser of the winner and still have the donker beat. its almost as if you tried to misplay every street in this hand and succeeded in doing so.

[ssmallz]

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Results:

You would have to have played with the BB to understand that he is indeed likely betting the river with a bluff or a medium pair. He would check-raise a straight or full house 499% of the time there, so the only hands that were likely to beat me were QJ, Q9, or a retardedly played 5.

Since it was impossible to fold the river given that, the only decision was if it was more profitable to call (and possibly pick up an overcall) or to raise (and possibly fold a slightly better hand behind me).

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The last paragraph sums up the hand so the only questions are how often is button folding a better hand and how often are you are ahead of bb. Your running a parlay where I don't feel you have the odds to win here. FWIW, I think you had the best hand on the river and it prolly didn't matter what you did. Against a 2p2er I like this play a lot more b/c they are likely to toss AQ, AA/KK but against the guy you described I dislike it b/c he's the type of donkey that will fling his chips in expecting to lose and drag a big pot.

[elindauer]

Preflop is a clear fold for me. The only way this hand is playable is if you expect to have position and can keep the pot shorthanded. Frankly, if I had no read on the button, I'd probably STILL fold it, but I appreciate that if the limper is known to be bad then a good player can squeeze out some profit here by raising. Moving on.

Flop donk is really weird. You are benefitting the pfr to your own detriment. I guess if the guys behind you are terrible and loose, it may not be bad though. If they were thinking at all your play would be terrible, as you do not want to get heads up with the best hand, you want to pump a big multiway pot. Yeah, the pot is kinda big right now, but it's hardly HUGE. I aim to win a big multiway pot by check-raising.

Turn bet is pretty doubtful. Very little fold equity, and worse you can get isolated with a raise from the pfr. Just check and call.

River is interesting. You're calling anyways, so does 1 more bet possibly push the pfr off a big hand? If he had KK or AA, he probably would have raised the turn, and if not, it means he believes you somewhat already. I'd say if he holds KK or AA, you definitely want to put in that 2nd bet (given that you can't go back and take back the 1st one). Your weirdplay of this hand has marked you with a possibly big made hand, and your lagtard BB opponent has given you the golden opportunity to use it to win a pot you perhaps should have lost. KQ is possible as well, as the two overcard + gutshot hand may play this way from start to finish and lay it down for 2 but not 1.

I think the river raise is pretty close, and certainly can't be a big mistake. Calling and going for the overcall from AJ KJ etc would be the less heart-stopping move of course.

good luck.
eric