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  #11  
Old 08-22-2007, 09:31 PM
FireStorm FireStorm is offline
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Default Re: I have AA and he cr shoves the turn

The fact that you mentioned his flop hesitation makes me think that this is 55 contemplating CRing the flop but deciding to wait a street. 55 and QJs are the only hands that beat you that can really be here, so I can see why people would say call, but the problem is that these and combo draws make up his entire range. He doesn't have a dry one pair hand with no draw here.
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  #12  
Old 08-22-2007, 09:31 PM
Jeff W Jeff W is offline
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Default Re: I have AA and he cr shoves the turn

Call. 55 or maybe 5s6s are the only hands that beat you here and I think 55 slowplaying on this flop is unusual.
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  #13  
Old 08-22-2007, 09:35 PM
Irish Mafia Irish Mafia is offline
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Default Re: I have AA and he cr shoves the turn

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a set of 5s.

AQ,JJ,QQ,KK would have raised preflop, or maybe limp/rr'ed. 55 might limp/call, then c/c set followed by CRAI despite the draw-heavy board on the flop.

JQs might be possible, as is 9Ts diamonds or spades. KTs seems a little loose to limp/call OOP.

66 seems unlikely to just c/c the cb on the flop.

So, vs { 55, QJs, Td9d, Ts9s } the aces has 31% equity.

Pot odds are a little worse than 2:1.

So, while it's close, if the range is accurate, then this is a fold.

Add that calculation to the Baluga Theorem which would indicate that c/c followed by c/r is generally a monster and I'd be inclined to fold.

However, if your experience at this level of play leads you to believe that villain's range is wider for taking this line OOP in a raised pot, then calling is good since the decision to fold is very close under the range that I've estimated.

Edit:

For example, if as one poster stated, his range might be this wide {55,KdQd,KdTd,KsTs,QJs,QdTd,Td9d,Ts9s} then you have 44% equity and the ~2:1 pot odds demand a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that he over-limped is pretty important. I'd expect him to raise KQdd, or a hand like ATss, preflop against a limper. And if thats the case, a pair+fd has to be discounted somewhat, and a set that much more likely. I could be wrong though.
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  #14  
Old 08-22-2007, 09:45 PM
thejerkface thejerkface is offline
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Default Re: I have AA and he cr shoves the turn

I stoved it. It's a close call getting 2-1 on his push. I included pretty much all of the combo draws as part of his range.

Board: 5d Js Qs 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.833% 39.83% 00.00% 333 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 60.167% 60.17% 00.00% 503 0.00 { 55, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, KsTs, QsJs, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, Ts9s, 9s8s, 6s5s, QJo }

Here it is with two draws (JT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 89 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) removed.

Board: 5d Js Qs 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.497% 36.50% 00.00% 273 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 63.503% 63.50% 00.00% 475 0.00 { 55, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, KsTs, QsJs, QdTd, Td9d, Ts9s, 6s5s, QJo }


Also, QJo may very well not be in his range, so here is the first stove results minus QJo, which makes it a very clear call.

Board: 5d Js Qs 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.399% 51.40% 00.00% 294 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 48.601% 48.60% 00.00% 278 0.00 { 55, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, KsTs, QsJs, QdTd, JhTh, Td9d, Ts9s, 9s8s, 6s5s }
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  #15  
Old 08-22-2007, 10:32 PM
DrMagic DrMagic is offline
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Default Re: I have AA and he cr shoves the turn

snapcall plz
why: you beat his range. ez
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