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  #11  
Old 08-17-2007, 02:23 PM
Bostaevski Bostaevski is offline
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Default Re: The Monte Hall Problem....again (slight variation)

The way I see it, even if Monty has a plan (only offers switch when you initially picked the correct door for example) it doesn't really matter because this information is not given in the initial problem. Based on the information you know, you have a 2/3 chance of winning by switching - even if Monty actually rigs it so you never win by switching.

Obviously if you knew his plan ahead of time then it could change your answer, just like if you knew your opponent ONLY raises with AA or if you knew the dice were loaded.
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  #12  
Old 08-20-2007, 07:46 PM
jackhigh jackhigh is offline
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Default Re: The Monte Hall Problem....again (slight variation)

This is easy... (probablility speaking) you always switch! Here's a simple explanation...

Out of 3 doors you can pick the car only once but you can pick a goat twice. 1 chance in 3 to win if you don't switch.
If you originally pick the car and switch, you lose.
But if you originally picked goat #1 and switch, you win. If you originally picked goat #2 and switch you win.
Thus if you switch you can win twice and lose once. If you don't switch, you can only win once and lose twice.
So always switch...unless you like goats! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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