400nl: Bottom set river play w/ reads vs donk

[LucidDream]

Villain is a huge fish. 60/14 over 1200 hands.

turn AF: 2.4
river AF: 4.9

He floats the flop probably 70% w/ any 2 cards, undercards, overcards, whatever. He randomly will pot it into you w/ big hands, turned or rivered pairs, and air. If you chk to him he will pot it alot of the time on the turn or river. It could be anything from air, to bottom pair, to A high...these are definitely bluffs in his mind. He seems not to understand the concept of showdown value or have a clue how to read hands.

He will also call down light sometimes.

Considering my turn c/r, should I chk river hoping he will fire pot w/ Tx, 9x, Qx, or whatever air he has...or bet river hoping he will call w/ any of those pairs I mentioned?

If bet, how much?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $769.00
BB: $394.00
UTG: $526.00
CO: $736.20
BTN: $629.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $4.00, <font color="red">BTN raises to $18.00</font>, Hero calls $16.00, BB folds, CO calls $14.00

Flop: ($58) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($58) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $58.00</font>, BTN calls $58.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $194.00</font>, CO calls $136.00, BTN folds

River: ($504) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)

Pot Size: $504.00

[Caballa]

Shove. Also, bet flop.

[Kinbor]

you can not check this to him after you raised the turn. since you beat most of his range (overpairs (very unlikely), J9,Q9 types of hands) and there are only 4 hands that crush you (99, JJ, 8T, TK) - QQ bets the flop 100%, i'd just shove, he doesn't even have a pot sized bet left. if he doesn't have anything he will fold to any bet anyway, so just push and let him call down with a worse hand. i wouldn't even be so afraid of straights since he is probably semi-bluffing on this flop 100%. i think if not coolered on the flop you are ahead 95% of the time.

ps. what Caballa above me said, since he is floating a lot anyway, why not just take that line. bet flop. check turn, let him bluff and c/r all-in on the turn.

[LucidDream]

i agree i should bet flop.

oh and fwiw, he took about 20-25 seconds time before calling the turn c/r.

and im not wanting to chk because im afraid of any hands. i'm looking to get all in here. obv if he has nothing he will fold. i think it's somewhat likely tho that if he has nothing he will shove and also if he has a weak hand w/ showdown value he might shove as a bluff. i know it makes no sense but i have seen him do it. he will decide he is going to rep the straight or something and shove.

i'm too deep to c/r AI on turn.

[Kinbor]

if he is doing that even after you clearly showed strength (has been doing that in other cases) I guess you could make an argument for checking there. it may even be better since you get his stack from wider range of hands. if he shoves weaker hands w/ showdown value, bluffs, strong hands and the nuts almost everytime, yeah, then checking the river is good as well.

ps. then bet the flop, and check/call turn. but the thing is, if you pot the flop and BTN calls aswell (as he did on the turn), and donk pots the turn, the pot is so huge that even he realizes he doesn't have any FE on the river (i didn't od the exact math but he probably has something like 1/2 pot bet left on the river if everything goes as planned)

[FireStorm]

I would bet the flop and simply shove the river.