3 High Stakes Cash Hands

[evanski]

In an earlier post I said I would make an effort to post some cash game hands here. Here are 3, all against different opponents. Ill come back in a day or so and give my reasoning for all of them. Assume that Im playing pretty lag for all of these, opening 75% of my hands on the button and reraising a lot from the BB.

Hand 1, thin value bet? 20-40 NL

Earlier in the match I threebarrelled with kq on a jt x x x board and got called by kj. I have fought back a little, we each have about 6k when this hand came up.

I openraise with AsJx to 125, he calls.

Flop: Js Ts 2s

He checks I pot he calls

Turn 5x

Check pot call

River 5x

Check, I push for 4k into a 2k pot....


Hand 2, big semi-bluff. 50-100 NL

Ive been playing with this guy for maybe 3 hours. Im up about a stack. Hes a pretty good player, very aggro. I have 30k he covers.

He opens on the button to 300 I reraise with 6s7s to 1100.

Flop: Ad Ks 3c

I bet 1750 he calls.

Turn: 9s

I check, he bets 4500 I push.


Hand 3. Same game, same opponent. He has 20k I cover.

He opens on the button, I reraise to 1100 with AsAd.

Flop: KsQd2d

I bet 1750 he calls

Turn: 6c

I bet 4k, he pushes, I.....

He hadnt really taken this line in a reraised pot yet. He had raised my flop lead a few times, and had called me down a few times, but never called the flop and raised the turn.

-Evan

[Nichomacheo]

Bearing in mind I am not NL cash game expert...

Why not value bet Hand 1? Sure, you might get called by a weaker jack and maybe even a ten, but its very risky. You dont get any hand that beats you to fold, and there are a few hands that he might pay you off with. Every weighed, I like a value bet better.

Hand 2... Fine. He has to have a very good hand to call. You havent mentioned any specific reads other than your LAGiness, which might work against you. Given your fold equity plus the chance you'll win if called, I think this is +EV.

Hand 3. I guess he folded on hand 2, eh? I see him having something like J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] type hand. If he has a hand, I'd be most worried about KQ. All in all, I think you're ahead vs a semi-bluff here.

[lbiars]

Hand 1- I like the overbet. He's more likely to think the 4k is a bluff than if you bet for "value". Judging from the previous bluff you showed, he will call any bet with KJ, QJ, J9, etc.., but also might call with a ten or mid pocket pair.

Hand 2- You're playing with fire here obviously, but at least you have outs if he calls, and he most likely folds a bad ace and any king. He's folding a lot more hands than he's calling so I think it's ok, but only if you plan on rebuying if you lose and take advantage of your "crazy" image. I think the only hand you're really worried about here is a set of threes.

Hand 3- I'd be inclined to call. I'm not sure he smooth-calls the flop with a set or top two because of all the straight and flush draws. I'm thinking semi bluff here, maybe Ad6d, 7d6d, etc... Similar to your play in hand 2.


Lee

[nycballer]

I'm assuming u lost hand 1 cause that value bet is auto, a push is too much tho i think. I think a push looks more like a flopped flush/overpair/big hand than a pot bet on river, esp if you've been caught before. Better to bet like 1700-2000 here just cause the push looks real scary.

Hand 2 and 3 are both totally player dependent. I find that on AKx flops if people are gonna bluff they don't float and just go for the raise on the flop, but again this specific player might float. His range on turn is AJ+(again alot of players check this some will bet) but more likely he's got two pair. I don't like this push if he's calling with A3+, u can find out same thing by making it 12k, which looks just as strong.

Hand 3 there are some players this is an insta call, some players insta fold. impossible to say for sure without playing with the player. However with that said, my money is on him having a flush or open ended str8 draw.

[creedofhubris]

hand 1, I like

hand 2, I think you're too deep to make that play

hand 3, ??????? ---- opponent dependent, i'd often fold. then again, who just calls a flop that drawy with a big hand? maybe he turned 2p?

[evanski]

Results.

Hand 1: He called with 88 (with spade).

Hand 2: He instacalled with aces, I sucked out. I think he played his hand very well.

Hand 3: I folded. I think, based on previous interactions, that he would have pumped the flop wtih a draw (I had folded to most of his flop raises in these situations so I think he would have thought that he would have decent folding equity on the flop). I think on the turn I am either beaten or he has air. I dont think this is ever a value push with a worse hand. He definitely would have 4 bet with ak, and i cant see this being something like kj or kt.

I was kind of hoping this thread would be more popular.

-Evan

[evanski]

[ QUOTE ]

hand 2, I think you're too deep to make that play



[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. Im not convinced though. Any reasonably sized check raise almost prices you in if he pushes. I also think he has air here a pretty decent portion of the time, and sometimes a flush draw, which he hopefully folds. I think he could also fold a semi-big hand to me here.

[ QUOTE ]

hand 3, ??????? ---- opponent dependent, i'd often fold. then again, who just calls a flop that drawy with a big hand? maybe he turned 2p?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its a fold as well, but he is definitely capable of showing up with a flopped set or flopped two pair here.

-Evan

[evanski]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not value bet Hand 1? Sure, you might get called by a weaker jack and maybe even a ten, but its very risky. You dont get any hand that beats you to fold, and there are a few hands that he might pay you off with. Every weighed, I like a value bet better.


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think he shows up with a hand that beats me here very often, if ever. The only hand I would be somewhat concerned about is jt. He NEVER folds a hand I am behind in this spot. So I think what it really comes down to is how much does his calling frequency change when I push relative to when I VB. I think in this particular spot, pushing doesnt change it very much, and maybe even encourages him to try and make a heroic call. I dont think my push looks any scarier than a bet of 1500 or so, and probably increases the chance that he perceives it as a bluff.

-Evan

[evanski]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like this push if he's calling with A3+, u can find out same thing by making it 12k, which looks just as strong.


[/ QUOTE ]

He might fold a3, Im really not sure. Hed at least think about it. The thing I dont like about making it 12k is that if he pushes, youre almost getting the right price to call. More importantly, I think that he sometimes has a flush draw here, and that if I make it 12k he will probably push over the top, but if I push, he has to fold (or should fold at least).

-Evan

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

hand 2, I think you're too deep to make that play



[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. Im not convinced though. Any reasonably sized check raise almost prices you in if he pushes. I also think he has air here a pretty decent portion of the time, and sometimes a flush draw, which he hopefully folds. I think he could also fold a semi-big hand to me here.



[/ QUOTE ]

I did some math. I assumed that every time he calls you're up against 2 pair or better.

He needs to fold 65% of the time for you to turn a profit with this move. (You win $9200 when your c/r takes down the pot, you lose (27.2K - (1/6*60K))= $17200 when it doesn't.)

It's certainly debatable as to whether he would fold that often.

However, I think a lot of one pair hands that would fold would also check the turn, and I think that running flush draws, which you put into his range, are really a miniscule proportion of his holdings.

If you only had 20K behind he would need to fold more like 45% of the time to make the play +EV and it would look a lot better to me.