SB in a limped pot, 4/180

[Fiksdal]

I'll take a grunch at this... meaning I haven't read any other replies.

Preflop: Since we are OOP and with a hand that is usually hard to play profitably postflop, I think this could be folded. The limp is marginal though, and not a bad play. But you have to be prepeared to face some tough decisions postflop.

We know though, that the limper is a 2+2er. This changes things. What is typically a 2+2ers range for limping here? Unlike a random 4/180 villlain, it's not full of junk and optimistic hands (like Q8s, T7 etc.) Those hands he would have folded. Obv neither AK/AQ/AJ, cuz those he would have raised with. To be honest I think we can give him a very narrow limping range here. Mostly the small pocket pairs to be honest, intending to play for set value. This is a huge majority of his range. Possibly it includes some suited connectors too.

The optimal way to play against this range is to raise. Although our hand isn't a very big favorite against it or anything, it makes life hard for villain. We might take it down preflop a lot of the time, which boosts the EV of raising to t200 here by a lot. Also: If villain has a pocket pair he might still call for set value. (that would be a really marginal call but he might make it. This would kick ass for us, cuz every time he doesn't make a set he folds to our cbet and loses that t200 to us. I like a raise preflop here.

Flop: Lead is fine, although check/evaluate definitley has its merits. Kinda close actually.

Turn: Would a 2+2er have slow played a set on this board? Not unless he is very very bad. That is unlikely. He could have some kind of other pocket pair that thinks it might be good but doesn't want a big pot. Or a draw of course. I usually check here for pot control, simply cuz we really must not build a bigger pot at this stage. If villain bets we might call, but honestly that would be marginal cuz it might take another bet to actually get to showdown, and after that one we only beat bluffs.

River:We only beat a bluff at this point. Villain looks like he really wants action given his sizing. Fold. Villain probably hit a draw, or has 99 or something. Very easy fold on the river here.