Help settle a debate: this guy's bluff good or bad?

[Ansky]

Seems to me that all of these river bluff raise posts, in which from a theoretical perspective you "shouldn't" be bluffing because you have so little technical folding equity, get poor responses. Not because the responses themselves are poor, but just because there are certain situations in NL cash which are about basic fundamentals, or about specific situation where generic advice is good, whereas situations like this are much more about your individual dynamic with the other player. There are plenty of players I would expect this bluff to work against if I'm playing on my account, and others I'd expect to bet/call AA here. It really isn't about whether the bluff is good or bad, [censored], it isnt even necessarily related to your image.

Your image may be crazy LAG but not every crazy LAG is capable of bluff shoving here. It just comes down to if the villain 1) Thinks you are capable of a bluff here. 2) Knows whether or not you know that.

[sisyphus]

settle a debate! surely you mean settle a bet.

[ImNotSoGood]

[ QUOTE ]
i actually kinda like this, but you didn't tell us what his image is. assuming it's fine, i like it. you probably don't have a straight, and making this call is going to be throwing away money against a tight player without a straight.

calling totally depends on his image. basically, "is he capable of making a play here and what is my image" give you the answer of if you should call.

tc

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my first thought. I thought that this would be good w/ a good image, but I completely disagree w/ this under two conditions.

-Hero in this case has at least half-decent hand reading skills.

-Your image is not loose/weak-passive. I think with a loose/weak passive image(especially when it comes to raising from CO, and also calling 3-bets in position), this could be a good play.

If a player has a standard TAG image - Let's assume he's playing 18/17/3 - he is raising A9o+, A8s+, Any two broadway cards suited or offsuit(other than KTo,QTo,and JTo), 65s+, and 44+. Let's assume he's calling the 3-bet with 44-88, 78s-TJs(only hearts and diamonds), AQo, AQs,AQh,AQd, AKh, AKd, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99. The reason I didnt include AQc, AKc,Akd, AA is to factor in the times he is four betting. I've made him 4 bet a pretty narrow range since he would want to balance his game by calling w/ alot more strong hands since he calls with a lot more speculative hands, and does not want to 4 bet lightly. I left out the SC's of two suits because he may fold these SC's anywhere from 30-70% of the time. So his calling range here is about 8%.

Now once you narrow down his range of playing this kind of line, his range gets sooo narrow. He can have 98s sometimes, almost never 87s, 76s, or 56s, and very rarely with 55-77 sometimes he can be floating w/ AK,AQ, and he can take this line and decide to bluff with JJ,QQ,TT, and sometimes he can raise the river for value w/ 99.

So let's assume his river range is 98h,98s(Let's say he slowplays here 50% of the time), 99(Let's say he decides to value shove 33% of the time), 88(let's say he takes this line w/ 88 1/6 times), JJ(Let's say he shoves for value 33% of the time), and always takes this line with 50% of his AQo's and TT. That is 3% of his range.

This is just to say he has a very narrow range on the river since his line is not compatible with a decent amount of his range.

You have to be bluffing a lot on the river for his bluff to be profitable, and you have to be bet/folding a v-bet often too. I doubt this is true, since your river equity against his push range is very good as long as he bluff pushes a reasonable amount of time.

On the other hand a very loose/passive player will not be pushing sets for value on the river, might take this like with hands like 88 and 78s, and sets, and might play a draw with 8x very passively. His push on the river would not be profitable to call with a wide range.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
man, i think this is terrible bluff by him

what the HELL Are you ever betting on the river that you check the turn with that does not start with st and end right raight?

[/ QUOTE ]

y is this always a straight? just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]

almost all of fwf's other made hands bet the turn the majority of the time, polarizing his range to a bluff straight majority, although im' sure there are some two pair he can have or something strong even that checks the turn for whatever reason, but he surely didn't give enough info on that in his OP- for that reason, he likely rarely shows up with one pair hands in this situation that are bet-folding (since one pair hands make up almost all of his bet-fold range, some two pair also i guess, but all pretty hypothetical)

for that reason, i've got fold > call > shove for villian, and i'm usually liking a shove more than a call in hands similar to this- just not this one.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
man, i think this is terrible bluff by him

what the HELL Are you ever betting on the river that you check the turn with that does not start with st and end right raight?

[/ QUOTE ]

y is this always a straight? just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]

almost all of fwf's other made hands bet the turn the majority of the time, polarizing his range to a bluff straight majority, although im' sure there are some two pair he can have or something strong even that checks the turn for whatever reason, but he surely didn't give enough info on that in his OP- for that reason, he likely rarely shows up with one pair hands in this situation that are bet-folding (since one pair hands make up almost all of his bet-fold range, some two pair also i guess, but all pretty hypothetical)

for that reason, i've got fold > call > shove for villian, and i'm usually liking a shove more than a call in hands similar to this- just not this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're wrong about betting the turn w/my made hands all the time. i definitely go for the c/r with sets and QQ+ a good amount of the time (probably more than most), but i guess villain can't really know that

[Ship Ship McGipp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
man, i think this is terrible bluff by him

what the HELL Are you ever betting on the river that you check the turn with that does not start with st and end right raight?

[/ QUOTE ]

y is this always a straight? just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]

almost all of fwf's other made hands bet the turn the majority of the time, polarizing his range to a bluff straight majority, although im' sure there are some two pair he can have or something strong even that checks the turn for whatever reason, but he surely didn't give enough info on that in his OP- for that reason, he likely rarely shows up with one pair hands in this situation that are bet-folding (since one pair hands make up almost all of his bet-fold range, some two pair also i guess, but all pretty hypothetical)

for that reason, i've got fold > call > shove for villian, and i'm usually liking a shove more than a call in hands similar to this- just not this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're wrong about betting the turn w/my made hands all the time. i definitely go for the c/r with sets and QQ+ a good amount of the time (probably more than most), but i guess villain can't really know that

[/ QUOTE ]

seems like a fantastic board to bet hard since it's so drawy, i would check rarely in this spot because i think it gets checked through so often since people often check turn with medium strength hands that they might clal a double barrel with if your turn betting frequency on this type of board is high

basicallly, i would bet a ton of drawy type hands on this turn so i would almost always bet my strong hands, guess i shouldnt have assumed the same for you, just thought it was standardish

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwf,

basically, to answer your question, if you don't suck then when you bet the river you either have

1. a monster that is hoping to be raised

or

2. a non-monster that knows this is a terrible board and is making a filthy bet-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is wrong, srry

[/ QUOTE ]

you think i'm bet/folding QQ-AA here?

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously if there isn't a single hand besides air that you are bet/folding, this is a terrible bluff and we dont need a thread here for such a simple question.

[KRANTZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwf,

basically, to answer your question, if you don't suck then when you bet the river you either have

1. a monster that is hoping to be raised

or

2. a non-monster that knows this is a terrible board and is making a filthy bet-call.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is wrong, srry

[/ QUOTE ]

you think i'm bet/folding QQ-AA here?

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously if there isn't a single hand besides air that you are bet/folding, this is a terrible bluff and we dont need a thread here for such a simple question.

[/ QUOTE ]

needed to win a bet. also, regardless of what i'd do it's good to see what people assume is going on in a hand like this.

[NT!]

i would like to hear why i'm wrong here g-p, not because i am super sure i am right or anything but just because i am not seeing why i would be wrong. am super drunk though.

imo this is one of those spots where simple fundamentals rule yo

[EnoBaLL]

good responses