Sustainable winrates at NL?

[theflyingcow]

We're talking micro stakes here like...$.5/10 - $.25/.50. I'm a limit veteran following the fish to NL. Gonna see if I can build a bankroll from $250.

[lucky_mf]

It depends on what level your playing and how good you are. For microstakes its probably pretty pretty high (like 10+ PTBB/100 or 20+BB/100). I've seen datamining of Stars and FT that indicates the best 1/2 NL players are winning 8 PTB/100. As you move up win rates drop. A very good win rate for 5/10 is 5 PTBB/100.

Lucky

[swingdoc]

~7-10 PTBB/100 is sustainable and really quite good. 5+ PTBB/100 is very solid and is a great initial goal. Some claim winrates above 10 PTBB/100, but I normally chalk this up to + variance, although I'm sure it is possible.

[phydaux]

I ran 17 bb/100 over several thousand hands.

Then gave it all back during a month-and-a-half long downswing.

I'm currently at 5 bb/100 after factoring in both my heater and my cooler. And that's a reasonable, sustainable, long-term win rate.

[Johnny Hughes]

You need to win consistently three out four of your sitdowns. It is three steps forward, one step back, over and over.

If you can't do that, find another game. I wrote this History Series on the News,Views, Gossip section including one about Bill Smith, a World Champ, and my early Mentor. He taught me that.

Very similar is when to quit a single game. If you get up big winner and then fall back, quit when you have lost 25% of your winnings. Again, one step back. Of course, a lot more goes into when to quit a poker game.

[lucky_mf]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to win consistently three out four of your sitdowns. It is three steps forward, one step back, over and over.

If you can't do that, find another game. I wrote this History Series on the News,Views, Gossip section including one about Bill Smith, a World Champ, and my early Mentor. He taught me that.

Very similar is when to quit a single game. If you get up big winner and then fall back, quit when you have lost 25% of your winnings. Again, one step back. Of course, a lot more goes into when to quit a poker game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure are a lot players with good win rates (measured in Poker Tracker Big Blinds per 100 hands - a PTBB is 2x the BB) over a large sample that do not win 75% of their table sessions. In fact I would hazard that most players with good win rates don't win 75% of their table sessions.

Lucky

[PaniX]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to win consistently three out four of your sitdowns. It is three steps forward, one step back, over and over.

If you can't do that, find another game. I wrote this History Series on the News,Views, Gossip section including one about Bill Smith, a World Champ, and my early Mentor. He taught me that.

Very similar is when to quit a single game. If you get up big winner and then fall back, quit when you have lost 25% of your winnings. Again, one step back. Of course, a lot more goes into when to quit a poker game.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just plain wrong. If on average I play 10 hands in each session, I would be a winner in very close to 50% of them in the long run. If I played 4000 hands each session the percentage would obviously be a lot bigger. You should think of poker as just one long session. Quit when the game is bad or when you're not playing well.

[Lordy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to win consistently three out four of your sitdowns. It is three steps forward, one step back, over and over.

If you can't do that, find another game. I wrote this History Series on the News,Views, Gossip section including one about Bill Smith, a World Champ, and my early Mentor. He taught me that.

Very similar is when to quit a single game. If you get up big winner and then fall back, quit when you have lost 25% of your winnings. Again, one step back. Of course, a lot more goes into when to quit a poker game.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just plain wrong. If on average I play 10 hands in each session, I would be a winner in very close to 50% of them in the long run. If I played 4000 hands each session the percentage would obviously be a lot bigger. You should think of poker as just one long session. Quit when the game is bad or when you're not playing well.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably talking about live. You can't really do 10 hand "sessions" when you play live... and you can't multi-table either.

[PaniX]

Well, OP is certainly not talking about live play. And anyway my point still stands, short term results doesn't mean squat, unless of course the results affect your play in a bad way.

[oober]

Last 18k hands. Stakes ranging from 50nl-200nl ~5.2 PTBB/100
37% WSF, 52% WSD. This is 95% at FR