#16
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Re: $2200 HU turbo SNG full tilt
I like the play. You could play it either way (call flop/shove turn, or raise flop/all shove) and be ok here I think.
The thinking for the first option is that if he has a hand like 10K with K of spades, or some straight and flush draw type of hand, he's probably willing to get it in on the flop and you've got a race to win the tourny, which sucks. In that case, calling and shoving a blank turn is great because your odds are much greater of getting a fold, or winning an all-in against 2 pair or a big pair or draw that feels priced in or can't fold. The problem is a hand like KsQx or some 2-pair type of hand where he's probably willing to get it all-in on the flop when you're pretty far ahead. I think this has more to do with your read on the villain and your style of play--conservative or aggro. Here's some pokerstove calcs I did which may or may not be great since I'm new to using it: Overal result was: Hand 0 - 57.5% Equity (your 88) Hand 1 - 42.5% Equity [ QQ+,JcJs,JdJs,JhJs,AsKs,AsJs,AsTs,As7s,As6s,As5s,A s4s, As3s,As2s,KJs-KTs,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks5s,Ks4s,Ks3s,Ks2s,JTs,Js7s, Ts7s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,5s4s,4s3s,3s2s,AcQd,AcQh,AdQc, AdQh,AhQc ,AhQd,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh,As9c,As9d,As9h,As8c,As8d,As8h ,KsQc, KsQd,KsQh,KsJc,KsJd,KsJh,KsTc,KsTd,KsTh,QcJs,QdJs, QhJs, QcTs,QdTs,QhTs,Qc9d,Qc9h,Qd9c,Qd9h,Qh9c,Qh9d,Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h,Qc8d,Qc8h,Qd8c,Qd8h,Qh8c,Qh8d,Qs8c,Qs8d,Qs8h, JcTs, JdTc,JdTs,JhTc,JhTd,JhTs,JsTc,JsTd,JsTh,98o] I figured any two semi-reasonable suited cards assuming he's very aggro, any QQ+, any set obv, any JsJx which may be somewhat loose. I also threw in a bunch of combo draws and any 2 pair. I don't really think the way you played your hand is so "omg obv" as some have said. I agree that you're usually not getting called here when you shove except by a hand that beats you, but what are the options? Call/fold river? Fold turn? That's just so weak. If he was betting a draw you win the pot on the turn, if he has you beat, it's unlikely you would be able to fold a set here anyway. I'm getting it in and liking my odds. |
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