10NL is this marginal turn call +EV or -EV?

[Panic__NL]

against a 35/0.7/2.1. His allin on the turn is almost certain a flush, but I have a lot of outs if he does not have the nut flush. I know it is a pretty marginal call, but is it +EV or -EV marginal?



Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $7.97
UTG+1: $5.20
CO: $2.70
Button: $11.56
SB: $10.50
Hero: $11.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($0.5, 5 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.4</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.3, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $4.7</font>, Hero calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10.7, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $10.7)


Results:
Final pot: $10.7

[Tiki]

Firmly EV- . Not even close.

[Genz]

Edit: ZOMG I'm so stupid. Of course you have ten outs, but you are not getting 3.6:1 anyway. So if you are certain that he has a flush, it's still a fold.

[Panic__NL]

10 outs?? i got 17 if i am not mistaken. any Q K 8 or 3 and if he does not have the nut flush, which is very well possible I have all diamond cards.

So:
Q 1
K 3
8 3
3 3
andy diamond: 7 (assuming he has 2 diamonds)


or am I missing something here?

[Genz]

I think you are too optimistic regarding the nut flush, considering that you could be against a full house already. You are getting 6.8:2.9 which is 2.3:1. So if you give yourself 14 outs, the call is break even. Since the truth probably lies somewhere between 10 and 17 outs, you can assume that this is a very marginal call.

[BobAllinSki]

its 3.9 to call in a pot of 2.9, so 2.3-1, against a flush you have 17 outs and against a boat you have 5 outs but at this level your opponent could easily have a queen so I'd say its EV+. If you could eliminate the lone Q but not the flush I'd say its pretty neutral but if villain wont make this play with just a flush then its EV-.

[Bowlboy]

i think it is unlikely villain has a boat here. If he did why would he want to blow you off your hand and not extract? A small flush, or Qx seems more likely than a boat. Keep in mind that large bets like this are often a total bluff or semi bluff. He could just have Ad with some other card and pushing the nut flush draw. Villain starts out hand with only 50BB as well. Did he just lose a big hand and possibly tilting, or is he just a shortstacked donk? I'm calling this. Sure you're up against a boat once in awhile and a flush once in awhile as well but we have a decent amount of outs against the flush especially if it's a non nut flush.

[Tiki]

Note that the Qd and Kd are accounted for. This ordinarily makes it more likely that villain holds Axdd given of course that he in fact does hold diamonds. Suppose then that our diamond outs total 3.5 instead of 7.

Taking into account rake, our EV looks like this:

(13.5/46)*{6.8-(0.05*10.7)}-4.1*(32.5/46)=-$1.05

Not too bad. Only a minor suck-out for Panic NL. A lot closer than I thought initially.

[BobAllinSki]

[ QUOTE ]
(13.5/46)*{6.8-(0.05*10.7)}-4.1*(32.5/46)=-$1.05

[/ QUOTE ]

Add the smallest percentage of bluffs or Qx this is likely to be +EV

[TheGrifter]

I beat him into the pot. He doesn't always have a flush and if he does he could've easily limped s/c's.

I would be very surprised to see a F/H here.