Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[McSeafield]

We can see what happens. I have no experience with them.
My proposal is to make pressure in order to get an independent audit by a well-known audit company.

[krumeluren]

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OK, I'll take this thread seriously for a second and ask a serious question. Please don't flame, this is a genuine question.

If, prior to his massive winning sessions (to avoid the possibility he was chip dumping), over hundreds of hands, DOUBLEDRAG played the same style of poker, 80/60ish, with the same kind of overaggro river aggression, but lost $ overall...would you still suspect him of cheating?

If the answer is yes, what would then be the basis of that suspicion?

Again, please no flames. This is a fair question, is it not?

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in fact, in the original thread, slider mentioned playing a session with graycat months ago. (and put up a HH from 5/10/07) He stated

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In 186 hands of HU, his River Agg was 11 at 15/30 vs. me



am i missing a piece of evidence? (please no flames, i genuinely am trying to figure everything out.)

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Another question for you Adanthar. At the end of the first thread, you posted a screenshot where DOUBLEDRAG played some limit. You stated:

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I've looked at the limit sessions. He is clearly not cheating in them. They are from 9/10



and yet his vpip/pfr and af look nearly identical. his river AF is smaller, but the rest looks the same. he's just not winning.

what i struggle with is figuring out how one maniacal session is not cheating and another one is. it seems to come down to how much $ he won.

although if you are indeed correct, these players played vastly different styles prior to this, then that is highly suspect. i would just like to see those data sets.

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dragonystic, very well put but sorry for getting you into trouble because I'm probably the least popular guy on 2+2 these days and you don't want to be associated with me (ooh wait, aren't we the same person??)

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*but you're wrong*. I'm not going to flame any of you like I do in strat forums, because this is a serious accusation and, of course, people are not going to want to believe it, but I'm honestly getting tired of explaining super basic ideas like "yes, schneids, cts, actionjeff, yellowsub, the entire who's who list on p5's, 2+2, AP and myself are good enough at poker to know when someone's cheating

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The response however, was a bit disappointing. And I think you're very wrong. Almost everybody at 2+2 wants to believe it. Take a look around and see for your self.

There are only a handful of us that think the case is not as strong as you suggest. And any fact that does not support the cheat hypothesis always have a creative explanation.

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If you look at the histories, it's remarkably easy. Limit hands all go to showdown, so the first question is: "is he betting into a better hand, and if so, can he get it to fold?" I could actually be wrong and he *is* cheating - he does a bunch of marginal stuff like bet K9 vs. 52 on a 96275 board. No cheater that's any good at limit would ever in a million years try to get 52 to fold there, but we already know he sucks at poker.

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The thing is that they might have been cheating and if they did it would best serve the poker community if all the data is presented in an unbiased way with reasonable estimates of the probability hat this cannot just be variance. So far this has not been done. And i think that me, dragonystic and and the rest of 2+2 deserve that much.

Why not compile all the available data (not only the suspicious sessions) into a PT-database and make it public?

[highhustla]

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Absolute is not based in Canada. The Kahwanake Gaming Commission is. Absolute is based in Costa Rica (and all their employees are there as well).

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You can file a complaint in any case with the Kahwanake Gaming Commission.


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And if Kahwanake owns Absolute, as the case seems to be, then... what?

I think the problem is obvious.

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Yes the problem is obvious. But think about. The Gaming Commission has also to represent the interest of hole gaming industry in Kahwanake. And this would be real test of the fairness of the Gaming Commission. What would other poker rooms say if the Gaming Commission will only act like an Absolute spokesman. The effect could be that the hole gaming industrie in Kahwanake would question the attitude of Absolute. Therefore, at least we have a chance of fair treatment or a decretal decision. Perhaps the Mohawks are more wiser than we expect. Give them a chance at least.

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God damnit.

[Victor]

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Why not compile all the available data (not only the suspicious sessions) into a PT-database and make it public?

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right now, the data prior to the alleged cheating and the data during the alleged cheating are easily available, tho usually separate.

and its quite obv that the styles are very different. you continually ignore this. why?

[Pokeraddict]

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LOL if you think the Kahwanake Gaming Commission is anything other than a regulatory front for the card rooms.

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Correct, AFAIK they have never even gotten involved in a dispute much less resolve one.

[Marnixvdb]

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Almost everybody at 2+2 wants to believe it. Take a look around and see for your self.

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Thats a very strange assumptions. Why would anybody want to believe it? Especially 2+2 who have always been keen to burn 'they can see my hole cards' threads.

[Ducatisti]

I have read this thread with great interest, and from the evidence presented so far it would appear that cheating has occured. But where does that take the aggrieved parties from here. Absolute have, from their reponse thus far, distanced themselves from the evidence that cheating appears to have taken place. In fact they appear to have denied any cheating has taken place whatsoever. So what evidence would be required to make potential media parties take this on board and produce an article. Do you think that from the evidence supplied by the HH's and anecdotal evidence from aggrieved parties would be enough for them to run with this story? I'm not so sure, as surely Absolute would threaten legal action without any real hard computer forensic evidence.

What evidence would a court of law require if this was to progress any further? Again I doubt wether the HH's evidence would be conclusive, at best it will be corroborative. It would appear that a full investigation of the Asolute servers and software would be the only way to produce any real forensic evidence. My guess would be that Absolute would well and trully have this covered by then.

I'm not sure where this goes from here, but I hope you guys perservere and get your money back. And I hope that Absolute get there just desserts for letting this happen and the way they have responded. GL.

[krumeluren]

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and its quite obv that the styles are very different. you continually ignore this. why?

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I don't think it is easily available. There are bits and pieces all over the place and dragonystic point to two different sessions where the stats were similar and the suspect lost a bunch of dollars. andathar also admits that he didn't read hands very well in his session. I have also seen some players in the limit thread that does not think he cheated against them. All we ahve is a few hundred hands of suspicios beahaviour.

The best would be to compile a database. I think most people agree with that.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

You have a PM victor

[KurtSF]

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What evidence would a court of law require if this was to progress any further? Again I doubt wether the HH's evidence would be conclusive, at best it will be corroborative.

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The testimony of hundreds of experts would make this case a slam dunk in a court of law, statistical evidence or not.

My suggestion: break up this discussion.

* Lock this thread make a new cliff's notes thread in BBV

* Start a new thread in Probability analyzing the numbers/ making the stats evidence concrete.

* Start a thread in the Zoo warning internet gamblers of this issue

* Let Mods know about that thread if they want to link it in a sticky in their forum

* Take Transference up on his offer to start a website to deal with the response to this issue

* This site should start as a meeting ground for everyone to put together in a coherent bundle all the examples and evidence of cheating in several ways for audiences of varying sophistication

* As the "case" becomes concrete, the site should turn into a PR machine for getting the word out