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#22
12-13-2006, 03:24 AM
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Re: A 10-20 hand I played.
[ QUOTE ]
Put another way, having the best hand preflop is not enough reason to raise if we're not that far ahead and our opponent plays in such a manner that will make our life very diffult should we miss the flop. [/ QUOTE ] This is a very important concept. The inverse is also important. [ QUOTE ] I figured my friend had Ax or Kx [/ QUOTE ] First a question: If it goes bet-raise-fold are you folding QQ? I take it you're calling A7 vs. just him. But what's your plan on a 6-2? I think he should be raising a gs here if he knew that you'd put him on an A or K. The pot isn't small at 7sb. He may fold a better hand and if not he'll probably get a free card. He's only screwed when you have a K or BT does, who is only sticking around if has an A or K and may even fold a weak A. Given your description, it's possible that BT, having CC'ed the flop, might check behind the turn with an A as well. 
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#23
12-13-2006, 03:32 AM
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Re: My answer.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] He may be passive but he still may raise with a boat. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, I think this kind of player would just call because he knows he's probably splitting against another ace, gaining no value, or he's giving Kx extra action. I think bet/fold is better because it allows you to get away for 1BB when he has Kx and raises instead of spending 2BB c/cx2. [/ QUOTE ] I think theres a good chance youre right waffle, but the problem is I am not 100% certain, I have a pretty good read on his play but I am not positive he's smart enough to figure out that there is no value in raising the turn with Ax.(assuming the passive player doesnt know my friend is bet/folding Ax here) [/ QUOTE ] OK, let's go with the assumption that the passive player doesn't know your friend is bet/folding Ax and will raise to exploit. [ QUOTE ] Sometimes people get blinded when they have a big hand and make mistakes. If my friend check/calls the turn and river he will never fall victim to this mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, this is gonna be a little bit more general than this specific hand.. Fine. But we can't stop there, saying "we will never fall victim to this mistake if we C/C so that plan is better." There are more questions we have to ask and we have to consider more than "I never want to make the mistake of folding a hand that deserves half the pot." We have to do an EV analysis like we are so used to doing in other situations. Plan X: Bet/fold turn Plan Y: Check/call turn+riv 1. If doing Plan Y: How often will the passive player make a mistake by raising Ax, causing us to make an incorrect fold? (Of course adjusting for "how often does he have the opportunity to make this mistake?") 2. How much money does the incorrect fold cost us? Vs 3. If doing Plan X: When the passive player does not raise Ax, how much money do we save by doing Plan X instead of Plan Y? (OF course including, "How often does he have Kx vs Ax?" and other stuff needed to figure this out) We have to weigh the frequency and magnitude of the mistake against the cost savings of the play that allows us to make the mistake sometimes. This will let us see the best decision. It's not enough to say, "I never want to make the mistake of folding a showdown worthy hand." We have to see if maybe, the mistake is worth making because it isn't so costly and we save a lot by allowing ourselves to make the mistake sometimes. I've noticed this shortcut a lot in your thinking when advocating the c/c lines, and maybe you've already thought about it and came to the conclusion that the magnitude of the mistake is big enough versus the cost savings, but this is just something I don't see talked about enough. And yeah, for the record, I remember Josh/sthief09 saying the biggest mistake people make in these games IS bet/folding too much :P
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#24
12-13-2006, 03:37 AM
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Re: A 10-20 hand I played.
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP You're going to autobet with all of your hands, even on an Ax flop. Say you raise w/ KTs, and the flop comes A9x. You bet, your friend raises, and everyone else folds. Fine. He didn't get any post flop action. But he risked 1sb and picked up a net of +6sb that offsets the times he's going to fold the flop. But wait, he didn't risk 1sb, he really risked 3sb when he raises the flop, and 7-8sb if he's always going to take it to showdown. Ok, so it looks something like this: Calls and folds flop: -1sb Calls, flops a hand, gets no action and takes it down: +6sb Calls, flops a hand, gets action from a better hand: -7-8sb Calls, flops a hand, gets action from a worse hand: +10-12sb You said the last one never happens but it happens sometimes. Sometimes you will have a lower suited ace and pay him off or the BB will flop two pair. It's closer than you say. You can't just say that he's in a reverse implied odds situation so it's a fold. There's still a decent amount of money in the pot preflop compared to the investment he's making by calling. If we could somehow increase the money in the pot preflop without increasing the number of players he's against or increasing the strength of the hand ranges he's against, it would be a call even if most of the time he's not getting action from a worse hand. I think the best way would be to quantify how often the above four happen by looking exactly at the hand ranges and how often they flop stuff. [/ QUOTE ] If the BTN was a terrible payoff fish postflop then I think it would be closer. I dont know how to quantify my friend's prospects, but I am convinced that my friend will not be able to turn a profit with this hand playing fit or fold vs me and the tight passive guy. I could be wrong but thats what I think. Paradoxically I think 3betting is better than calling, with folding being the best line of all. Atleast when my friend 3bets he'll almost always get the pot HU and if he has the best hand, hes going to take down almost all the pots if I miss the flop. He'll still end up folding the best hand to some of my semibluffs, but he will also likely force me to fold the best hand when I have a hand like AQ-AT and miss if I dont realize what he's up to. And im certainly going to fold 55-99s if the flop comes out really bad like KQJ or something. So 3betting preflop gets dead money in the pot from the tight passive, allows my friend a better chance at realizing his full equity when he does have the best hand and lastly, he puts me into some tough spots when I have the best hand where im almost certain to make FTOP mistakes. One may argue that 3betting is better than folding vs my range, but one thing I am certain of. Calling is the worst possible option in this situation. So my 0/4 statement still holds up.
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#25
12-13-2006, 03:57 AM
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Re: A 10-20 hand I played.
[ QUOTE ]
The BB is my best friend and roommate. He has been playing limit holdem for 7 years and he taught me how to play 3 years ago. [/ QUOTE ] Where is TheHip41 these days?
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#26
12-13-2006, 04:04 AM
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Re: A 10-20 hand I played.
"First a question: If it goes bet-raise-fold are you folding QQ?"
Yes I would fold all pocket pairs QQ's or lower, while there may be a small chance Im getting outplayed, the pot is not large enough for me to worry about, and my friend doenst get out of line very often. "I take it you're calling A7 vs. just him. But what's your plan on a 6-2?" With A7 through A2 I will take one of two lines. I will either 3bet the flop, and bet/fold the turn in hopes of getting the same hand to fold. And I do believe my friend is capable of making that fold. Or I would call the flop raise, and check/call the turn. I play the river the same for both lines I mentioned: If two running low cards hit I will check/fold the river cuz my friend will not bet the river with a lesser hand when its obvious I have an ace. He doesnt make 3rd level plays so I can make this fold. If I improve to a nice kicker on the turn or river, then I would check/call the river since I know my friend will not fold the same hand if he gets to the river. "I think he should be raising a gs here if he knew that you'd put him on an A or K. The pot isn't small at 7sb. He may fold a better hand and if not he'll probably get a free card. He's only screwed when you have a K or BT does, who is only sticking around if has an A or K and may even fold a weak A. Given your description, it's possible that BT, having CC'ed the flop, might check behind the turn with an A as well." I agree with you that raising a gutshot here may show a positive expectation against my range when I bet the flop especially when you factor in that Im instafolding all lower pocket pairs meaning If I call the flop, my friend can just give up on his play on the turn and take a free card if his flop raise folded out the tight player, or check/fold the turn if the tight player's still there. This is why Kwaz's idea of raising the flop with Ax has merit becuz it gives these kind of semibluffs extra credibility.
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#27
12-13-2006, 04:11 AM
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Re: A 10-20 hand I played.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The BB is my best friend and roommate. He has been playing limit holdem for 7 years and he taught me how to play 3 years ago. [/ QUOTE ] Where is TheHip41 these days? [/ QUOTE ] He sold out and got a real job being a teacher at a highschool in Maryland, which is something he's always wanted. He doesnt play poker as much as he used to back in the partypoker days. Right now, when hes not busy correcting papers or fantasizing about molesting 15 year old highschool girls, he can be found bonuswhoring on Fulltilt.
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#28
12-13-2006, 01:27 PM
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Re: My answer.
"Fine. But we can't stop there, saying "we will never fall victim to this mistake if we C/C so that plan is better." There are more questions we have to ask and we have to consider more than "I never want to make the mistake of folding a hand that deserves half the pot." We have to do an EV analysis like we are so used to doing in other situations. Plan X: Bet/fold turn Plan Y: Check/call turn+riv" The problem here waffle is I cant do a proper EV analysis becuz my postflop read on the tight passive is not that precise. So I cant answer these three questions you posed with high enough degree of certainty: "1. If doing Plan Y: How often will the passive player make a mistake by raising Ax, causing us to make an incorrect fold? (Of course adjusting for "how often does he have the opportunity to make this mistake?") 2. How much money does the incorrect fold cost us?" Vs 3. If doing Plan X: When the passive player does not raise Ax, how much money do we save by doing Plan X instead of Plan Y? (OF course including, "How often does he have Kx vs Ax?" and other stuff needed to figure this out)" Since I cant draw an accurate conclusion on how likely the Tight Passive will raise the turn with Ax, I have no other choice but to approach the turn from a logical perspective intead of an EV perspective.
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