7/23: Braves @ Giants

[iillllii]

The current line at bodog is ATL/Smoltz (-111) @ SF/Cain. I see a lot of value on the Braves in this matchup as Smoltz is a much better pitcher than Cain, and the Braves offense is better than the Giants'.

On the year, Smoltz has a 2.88 era and 1.22 whip, with an impressive 4.5 K/BB ratio. His era is a full run lower than Cain's 3.87, whereas Cain's whip is well higher at 1.38 and his K/BB is a putrid 1.5. Smoltz is coming off a 7 inning shutout at home vs. the Reds, whereas Cain got touched up for 6 earned runs in 4 innings at Chicago his last start.

Digging deeper, we see that Smoltz is worse on the road than he is at home, as his road numbers are 3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and BAA of .277. However, offsetting this factor, Cain is surprisingly worse at home than he his on the road, with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.41. I worry less about Smoltz away ability as the Giants are awful offensively, and his low walk totals should help in a large hitters park in AT&T.

Additional info supporting the Braves is that as a team, they have actually played better on the road than they have at home, with a 25-21 record (compared to 27-26 at home). The Giants are losers at home at 21-24.

The Giants have lost 7 of their last 10, whereas the Braves are even in the same span.

All I can think of for the line being where it is, is that Bonds is close to breaking the record, and people know he wants to do it at home. This kind of public mentality can be quite profitable.

For those consistently handicapping baseball this season, I'm curious why this would not be a play, as I like this game better than all others on the day.