NL25: fold bottom set?

[coordi]

Villain was 12/6/0 over 31. Finished 11/6/1 over 70.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($17.30)
CO ($25.65)
Button ($9.50)
SB ($46.40)
BB ($25)
UTG ($6.95)
UTG+1 ($16.65)
Hero ($30.75)
MP2 ($11.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($1.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.75</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.25</font>, Hero ?

[Effen]

Unraised pot.
5th nuts.
BB missed flop c/r (possible).
BB's rereraise is very specific here.
34 just got there.
5th nuts.
Unraised pot.
BB's rereraise is very specific here.
This is KJ hearts NEVER.
5th nuts in an unraised pot.

Foldfoldfold.

[Mr. Pozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Foldfoldfold.

[/ QUOTE ]He has 34 nearly 100% of the time making this a call, not a fold.

[seki]

You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

[CazicT]

Villian was BB, he could have almost anything preflop. AA is probably a low possibility though since MOST of the time he would raise with AA.

Sure his postflop AF is low, but you don't have enough hands to really take this into account, especially at the time it happened.

Stack off. The villian (as far as we know) will stack with A8 and probably other 2 pair hands all day so no need to get scared here.

If you disagree, then I think you are weighting the PT numbers too much.

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Foldfoldfold.

[/ QUOTE ]He has 34 nearly 100% of the time making this a call, not a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

12/6/1 's don't play 34. This is A8 or AK or AQ or 88, or 44

By bad, unraised pot. It's definitely not 34 100% of the time. Although it is your fault for making that a possibility by not raising this hand pre flop. Raise it preflop and follow it with a CB bet. You will make money that way just like you will when you make your sets.

[FireStorm]

I'd probably end up calling/shoving and losing, then throwing my mouse. That being said, this is one time where you may actually be able to confidently fold a set. 43o and 43dd just got there, and 3 higher sets are out. It's a limped pot and you've been three bet by a tight player, and most two pairs are out of the equation.

[FireStorm]

This is the BB in an unraised pot, so there's no question as to whether or not he would play 43. For that matter, I'm not sure how you claim this guy is too tight to have 43 but A8 is in his range.

[Effen]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 pairs aren't missing a flop checkraise, they're leading out.

This is the kind of hand where you go "DUMDEDUM I HAS A SET ARRINARRINARRIN o wtf how could he have 34 there poker is rigged." This seperates winners from marginal winners, marginal winners from breakeven players, and breakeven players from losing players.

Going broke with no reads and not defining your villain's hand with the 5th nuts is a good way to, well, go broke.

[bkar824]

Shove. If the flop was A52 you'd get all in, what's the difference here? You're good more than 45% of the time.