NL25: fold bottom set?

[Specialwon]

Pokerstoving excluding only AA and including all 2 pair hands gives 55.5% equity.

But, in the real world, 2 pairs play this way less often than sets and 34. If we say that the 2 pair hands are half as likely as the killers to follow villain's pattern, you have only 38% equity. Maybe talk it up to 40% allowing for bluffs and Ax possibilities.

Given the money already in the pot, a shove isn't horrible. But, it's high variance play, and its a kick in the teeth to get oversetted, gotta think about what that does to your tilt control for the next few hands after.

If you can bring yourself to make the big laydown, I think a fold is the best play.

[MadMike]

BB thinks he's got the best hand on the turn- this is not a bluff. That's about all we can conclude from his 3-bet and his stats.

So what could he have where you beat him but he could still think he's ahead of your range? The key would be to know what he thinks your turn raise means. If you've been playing LAG here and doing a lot of semibluff raising then you want to be AI here. If not... then I think this is a lot closer than some are giving credit for if BB is even close to being solid.

At NL25 I still call because villians usually think one street at a time only and he could put you on a range that includeds medium-strong aces for TP, random 2 pairs, 34, as well as sets. Against this range he'd be putting you on, any two pair is probably a favorite and the meat of his range- meaning you are the favorite to get AI.

But if he is thinking and knows you don't suck, then your range is pretty narrow here and would be 22, 34s, A2s because you are not going have 2pair with 85,82,or 52. And you're not going to slowplay the flop 4-way with 2 diamonds with A5s,A8s, 55, or 88. So against that range, what range would the BB have that he thinks he's a favorite against you- but you still beat? Not much.... if you assume he'd not slowplay 2-pair or a set with two diamonds on the flop then the only hands that makes sense would be A2, 82, 52, 43. And if he had your range as 22,34,A2s then he's not going nuts with 82, 52, or A2.

Of course this is a 25NL- so just push since he could have pretty much any 2-pair hand since no one at 25NL really thinks the way I outlined above at the table.