THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

[tmcdmck]

[ QUOTE ]
No, thats about it...we have a set hu against a station omg.

So many hands he could be 'value betting' here besides the flush or KQ. A lower set (yes he will limp 1010 JJ otb button)
10J, other 2pr's with the case ace, air.

[/ QUOTE ]

so in conclusion there is alot you know about villain that i dont :P everything you typed goes contrary to assumptions id make about unknown except for calling station.

and when you say there are "so many" other hands he could be value betting, you realise that our equity vs any set, any aces up, JT, any straight or any flush (giving him the range you suggested, excluding air) is only 30%, making it an clear fold for us. and this is without weighting the range at all, when clearly it should be somewhat weighted towards straights and flushes (especially flushes).

so yes, if his range really does contain all the hands you suggested, and it is non weighted, and he is capable of taking that line with air often enough, then it is a call (though a pretty thin one taking that all for granted).

*edit* though to be fair if we are weighting the range, we would have to weight preflop aswell, and i have no idea how it would be weighted with this villain, as i would have weighted it well away from TT and JJ, and you have made it clear that is a mistake*

[brandysbich]

Nah agilitybob is a bit a of character to play at times..he's pretty well known for being one.

I've never really been any good at the numbers game but I don't get what you say when you mean our equity against other sets and 2prs is 30%, that makes no sense to me....our equity is 100% against all 2prs and like +%95 against other sets...so no its not a clear fold without weighting the range towards flushes and straights as you put it.

Maybe i'm reading it wrong but thats not making a whole lot of sense to me. As far as preflop goes, i've played agilitybob before and he's limped aces and kings otb preflop against me so its not totally impossible for him to have a set of jacks or tens.

I'll be the first to admit I know nothing about pokerstove and working out what % of the time a call is good so maybe you could help me out here by explaining what you meant.

Personally I dont like to make things more complicated than they are. You have top set in a raised pot with 1 straight possibility and the spade falling on the river making the flush possible, you're up against a calling station hu, I dont see folding ever being an option unless you b/folding on the river, and even then its a tough fold getting the odds you getting to make the call. Longterm I think you lose more making these great laydowns with hands as strong as top set than you save the times you right.

[tmcdmck]

hmm well i didnt explain the numbers because most people in this forum are experienced with poker stove (and you should be too: go download it and fool around, it will REALLY help your game: you cant pokerstove in the middle of a match easily, but it gets you thinking in terms of equity vs ranges)

okay i will explain

1) you have 30% equity vs villains range on RIVER
2) and so on river you have 100% equity vs sets and 2 pairs, because you have them beat and there are no cards to come
3) BUT you have 0% equity vs straights and flushes for the same reasons
4) for every 3 possible set or 2 pair combos, there are 7 straight or flush combos (mostly flush combos): there are alot more combinations of cards that makes flushes than there are that make 2 pairs on this board.
5) therefore, 70% of his his possible holdings beat you, 30% lose to you
6) therefore, you would call this bet expecting to win 30% of the time

i am not sure how clear that made things. basically i calculated heros river equity vs the whole of villains given range. if you dont get that, i dont really know how to explain any more clearly.

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I dont like to make things more complicated than they are.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not. i am making them exactly as complicated as they are, which happens to be quite complicated. yes, you could take the "zomg 3 aces" approach, and you would not go far wrong with it. but this forum is not about how not to go far wrong, it is about how to play the absolute best you possibley could and become a better player. therefore you sometimes have to think about advanced concepts and crunch alot of numbers.

[ QUOTE ]
Longterm I think you lose more making these great laydowns with hands as strong as top set than you save the times you right

[/ QUOTE ]

the whole point of an equity calculation (like the one i made) is to figure out whether a laydown is worth making in the longterm. the numbers i got suggest it is. also hand strength is relative. on a 3flush 3 straight board a set is a strong hand, but not that strong a hand.

[brandysbich]

Thanks for explaining how you got the 30% figure, still doesnt seem right to me that top set is only good 30% of the time here but i'm not going to argue about something I dont know.

About not making it more complicated than it is, you saying that by using the "zomg 3 aces' approach and just calling based on that is not gonna get me far wrong...yet optimally according to you this is a fold? I dont see how not far wrong could be a complete u-turn on optimal play. I dunno...for me there's just too much things involved in hu like instincts, flow of the game and history that crunching numbers on a hand like is just gonna give you headaches. I mean who are we kidding, no matter what the equations say i'd be willing to bet not one HUCASH player here can say they are c/fing this river. So in the end it all comes down to zomg I have 3 aces i call.

[tmcdmck]

the reason that "zomfg 3aces" makes you call, yet my approach makes you fold, yet i say there is not much in it is pot odds.

on river villain makes a pot sized bet, so we are getting 2:1 to call. that means we have to be good 1/3 times for a call to be correct. 30% is slightly less the 1/3 times, therefore it is a fold. BUT because there is only 3% in it, a call would not lose you that much, therefore a call would not be that bad. when a decision is really close, it normally makes little difference what you actually do in the longrun, as a close decision means you intuitively feel you are very close to being good the right amount of the time one way or the other.

so basically the nice thing about the "zomg 3aces" approach is that when you call incorrectly, you rarely lose that much (in the longterm), and it saves you from folding incorrectly (which is likely to cost you more due to how often a set of aces is good).

obviously there are flow and instincts, but they are really just an instinctual understanding of the numbers (and if they are not, then quite frankly you have bad instincts). furthermore, since you cant convey those things well in a post, we just have to deal with cold hard maths. i really dont understand why you think bringing maths into poker is so problematic: understanding pot odds is vital to success, and it would be very odd if a player said calculating them was uneccessary and made their head hurt. equity calculations are a more complex example of the same thing.

i disagree that no HUCASH player would be folding the river. I am usually a calling station, but i have folded sets in spots like this.

[mb6tour]

As to the pokerstove issue, I strongly recommend you get Hold'em Ranger too. It's allows you to wheight hands and to insert suited cards much easier.

The equity calc I made to this hand looks like that:

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
24.00% 0.00% 24.00% ( AcAd )
76.00% 0.00% 76.00% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, )

If we add more two-pair combinations and put also TT and JJ it gives you:

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
34.48% 0.00% 34.48% ( AcAd )
65.52% 0.00% 65.52% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, TT, JJ, J6s, )

And with T6s + aces up

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
46.48% 0.00% 46.48% ( AcAd )
53.52% 0.00% 53.52% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, TT, JJ, J6s, T6s, AT, AJ, A6, A3 )

I'm not wheighting anything here.

[TNixon]

***EDIT***
One day maybe I'll learn to finish the thread before responding. It looks like everything I've said below is already taken into account. I personally believe the range that gives 24% equity doesn't include nearly enough of the hands that villain probably thinks are good, but there's no point in quibbling bits.

Mostly irrelevant stuff follows: [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
--------------------------
The only straight is KQ, which is a pretty unlikely limp on the button, and you can't really count every single possible flush, unless you know opponent is a donk who's going to call any two suited cards to a raise, including stuff like 72 and 93.

You can also likely exclude big suited cards (or at least discount them), AK through whatever you think villain is going to raise instead of limp with, and probably stuff like KQ, maybe all the broadway flushes, depending on how villain plays.

After you dump a bunch of possible flushes that are unlikely limps (or, again, at least discount them somewhat), you probably get a lot more than 30% equity.

And you're getting 2 to 1 odds, so you only need to have 33% equity for the call to be good, which means that even if you're in love with the 30% equity figure, you really don't have to add very much air at all to his range to make the call good.

By the numbers, it seems like a call to me (although admittedly a very marginal one), and whenever it's even remotely close, I tend to call, because I want most villains to think I'm an even bigger calling station than I am, so they won't try to bluff me out of every single pot.

Of course, if we're dumping some flushes and straights as unlikely limps, you can probably discount a couple of the Ax two pairs, and maybe some of the others that might be unlikely calls to the raise, like T3 and J3, so maybe it all evens out.

Still, almost all villains are going to have *some* sort of air in their range, and a fair number of them will turn weaker pairs into bluffs on the flush river.

[tmcdmck]

i am now sounding like such a broken record, you are right, except i think the hands need to be weighted, and you could get all sorts of numbers dependant on said weighting. basically some people will come out with "call" some fold.

i think ill just shut up in this thread from this point forth.

[TNixon]

Yeah, I didn't even see the actual range posting that did take into account some of that stuff. Sorry about that.

But in all honesty, even 24% is close enough that you'd have to be *very* confident of your range weighting to make it a clear fold. Who knows? Maybe his range is 100% flush, and he wouldn't pot anything less. But I honestly think there have only been a handful of occurences where I've had a solid enough read that I could make this fold. I'm just almost never *that* confident that I know what my opponent is up to.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

and when you say there are "so many" other hands he could be value betting, you realise that our equity vs any set, any aces up, JT, any straight or any flush (giving him the range you suggested, excluding air) is only 30%, making it an clear fold for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

We only need .33 equity vs. his range to call that pot-sized river bet. Alter that range even a little and it's a call.