Playing low limits and ICM - Page 2

igotBlackJak · #11 07-11-2006, 04:13 AM

the chest was way cooler than the face IMO... headbutting someones face sucks... there is a huge chance of a tooth getting imbedded in your fourhead (how the [censored] do you spell fourhead)...

either way you could get hepetitus (wtf spelling again) or something from someone's face bleeding on your face...

BahhGawd · #12 07-11-2006, 04:21 AM

I don't think this is the question you really mean to be asking. In the speed SNGs, about 5-10 hands determine the amount of money you're going to make in that tournament. This is too small of a timeframe to be passing up situations you know are +EV in hopes of finding greater ones later on.

Now... that being said, it is often correct at the lower levels to pass up the situations that appear to be marginally +EV to you.

But, this isn't because you rather wait for a bigger edge later on. It is because the calling ranges of your opponents are often so volatile that situations you estimate as +EV based on your assigned calling ranges can very likely be -EV in reality.

So, you'd want a buffer to make sure that you really are making a +EV shove. In my opinion, making a -EV shove is a bigger mistake than missing a marginally +EV one.

So the reason you might want to pass up what you estimate as marginally +EV pushes is because your inaccuracy in estimating calling ranges makes it likely that your estimate is incorrect and the push is really -EV.

elrudo · #13 07-11-2006, 05:42 AM

I pass up on some profitable pushes on the bubble ( especially on the button ) when I expect the other guys to knock each other out.

That makes folding > $EV than pushing.

Does that count ?

igotBlackJak · #14 07-11-2006, 05:44 AM

elrudo... that is kinda what i'm thinking..

i dunno

elrudo · #15 07-11-2006, 05:52 AM

A while ago Citanul spent some words on that subject in a someway related thread:
here

BahhGawd · #16 07-11-2006, 05:52 PM

On what basis are you expecting these players to knock each other out? This expectation has to come from the SB's push range and the BBs calling range, not just you hoping that this is going to happen.

Obviously, if you are so confident that they are going to war, then the BB's calling range is going to be loose by default, so if you really have a hand that is still +EV to push against this loose range, then this is a situation that I feel is wrong to pass up.

laser16 · #17 07-11-2006, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On what basis are you expecting these players to knock each other out? This expectation has to come from the SB's push range and the BBs calling range, not just you hoping that this is going to happen.

Obviously, if you are so confident that they are going to war, then the BB's calling range is going to be loose by default, so if you really have a hand that is still +EV to push against this loose range, then this is a situation that I feel is wrong to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is an example of where it would be correct to pass up a small edge based on the fact that you have "elimination equity" if you fold.

300/600 (stacks preposting)
BB 2000
SB 2000
You 2000
UTG 14000

SO lets say UTG folds and you know that SB will push 100% of hands if you fold and BB will call with 60% of hands. Before the hand starts you have 18.94% of the prizepool, if you fold you have 22.92% so you should only push if the push is going to reult in a greater gain then the fold not if it is just barley +EV. A simplified example for sure but hopefully it helps.