5/10 - QTo - Top pair paired on drawy board... turn call?

Heisenb3rg · #1 10-19-2007, 04:12 AM

I could probabily do the math myself... But im curious on peoples thoughts on calling turns with gutshots + pair draws in medium-small pots.

villain is not known very well, seems kind of fishy, not very very agro but not def not passive. Like 50/20/1.5 or something.

If its on the turn, the ranges are wide and I have one overcard + gutshot, I normally dont even do any pot odds calculations... mostly just instacall or possibly raise if the sitatuion is right.

Could this be a possible leak?

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.4SB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.2BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6.2BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10.2BB

I figure this is HIGHLY dependent on how much he is semi bluffing the flop.
The 9 can be a good card or bad card.

Bad: when he has 9x, my 6 pair outs are no good.

Good: the 9 decreases the probability he has a 9 by like 1/3 and no other semibluffing hands improved.

thepizzlefosho · #2 10-19-2007, 04:18 AM

dont you have two overs and a gutshot on the turn? so yeah I think you can give yourself prolly 6-7 outs on average. assuming you can make a bet (or 2 if you hit the straight on the river) I think it is a standard turn call. you are getting about 5.5-1 (I guess less with rake) and you need about 6.5-1. so if you can count 1 bet of implied odds you are good.

admiralfluff · #3 10-19-2007, 04:30 AM

He has a 9 here 10% of the time at most. He needs to have one at least 25% of the time for you to fold, maybe more depending on his range.

Besides that, if you tend to fold here he will adjust, and his frequency of having anything will further decrease. This will make the fold even worse.

Gurravasa · #4 10-19-2007, 04:43 AM

Well I think you have done the pot odds calculations Heis but that was probably quite a long time ago. Since you are an experienced player you have played many similar hands HU postflop and in the beginning you probably counted outs in a situation like this. Now you don't need to anymore since your brain recognizes the situation and tells you what to do right away. Thats called experience.

Off course you need to do some checkup from time to time so you havend automatized a leak! But in this case you can call turn and expect an profit in the long run, so your instincts where correct. NH

gehrig · #5 10-19-2007, 04:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well I think you have done the pot odds calculations Heis but that was probably quite a long time ago. Since you are an experienced player you have played many similar hands HU postflop and in the beginning you probably counted outs in a situation like this. Now you don't need to anymore since your brain recognizes the situation and tells you what to do right away. Thats called experience.

Off course you need to do some checkup from time to time so you havend automatized a leak! But in this case you can call turn and expect an profit in the long run, so your instincts where correct. NH

[/ QUOTE ]

Robin Foolz · #6 10-19-2007, 05:04 AM

nice pic. where do you go jet-skiing gehrig?

Heisenb3rg · #7 10-19-2007, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I think you have done the pot odds calculations Heis but that was probably quite a long time ago. Since you are an experienced player you have played many similar hands HU postflop and in the beginning you probably counted outs in a situation like this. Now you don't need to anymore since your brain recognizes the situation and tells you what to do right away. Thats called experience.

Off course you need to do some checkup from time to time so you havend automatized a leak! But in this case you can call turn and expect an profit in the long run, so your instincts where correct. NH

[/ QUOTE ]

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Post of the month?

ps. yeah I thought it was standard , but had questioned my frequent turn calls with gutshots prior to this hand. Then I got berated by the person who lost this pot..
Told me he makes a living off people like me who come to "gamble" while he comes to play poker.. Said I was going broke soon etc.. I played along, saying im down 30k liftime etc..

It seems like I get called a fish almost daily now..

Absolution · #8 10-19-2007, 02:19 PM

I always call these turns when the guy could be betting a lot of worse hands and I have a gutshot and at least partial pair outs. What is your plan here if the river comes a Q and he still bets? It's funny that he berates you here because I think just about every veteran poster here would call most turn cards here.

Gurravasa · #9 10-20-2007, 11:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like I get called a fish almost daily now..

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats great! Thats the image you want! I get called fish and callingstation regulary, but what can I do when they keep 3-barelling air into me?

Guy McSucker · #10 10-20-2007, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

It seems like I get called a fish almost daily now..

[/ QUOTE ]

People never see the truth on these boards. You hit the g/s and they never notice you had overcard outs. You hit the overcard and they never notice you had g/s outs. And so on.

Plus, you're a fish.

Anyway, standard call. And I do not understand gehrig's picture. WTF does it mean??