QQ on J high flop, reraised pot (200NL)

[Fingerswinger]

villain is 12/12/1.7 (50 hands)

i have been very active (for a TAG), winning a lot of small pots without showdown. i'm probably about 17/15/4 at this table. no memorable hands vs. villain.


Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $205.47
CO: $359.20
Hero: $235.95
SB: $210.05
BB: $177.05

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $25</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($52, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $40</font>, Hero feels lost

[sixhigh]

Calls. This kind of player wont fire again on the turn without having you beat so you can safely fold to further bets.

[Michaelson]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Fingerswinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 6d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.389% 54.59% 00.80% 21619 315.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 44.611% 43.82% 00.80% 17351 315.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

what about AJ? would he never reraise preflop with that?
will he c-bet all of his AQ hands?

let's suppose i do have 55% equity, should i raise now, or will he only call with hands that have me beat?

[sixhigh]

Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[Fingerswinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Calls. This kind of player wont fire again on the turn without having you beat so you can safely fold to further bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

this sounds very reasonable to me.

[Fingerswinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

and i'm not even a clear favorite over that hand:


Board: Jd 3d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.111% 51.11% 00.00% 506 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 48.889% 48.89% 00.00% 484 0.00 { AdJs }

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? For one thing, even if Ad/Kd hands are folding to a push then it is a great result. Secondly, they don't.

Shove here. Charge higher flush draws/random c-betting hands to suck out. You're ahead of his range and a diamond A or K might kill you. This is a no brainer.

[Montezuma21]

i think it's close between call flop/fold turn and fold flop. your equity against a very tight range is 54% (TT+, AKo) and against a slightly wider range (88+, AQs+) is 66%. i don't think you;'re getting bluffed out very often on the turn (except by Adx, which there are few combos of), so you can safely fold on the turn.

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising here is quite dumb, the only hand you can beat that calls a raise is some AdJx combo and i doubt he has that very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? For one thing, even if Ad/Kd hands are folding to a push then it is a great result. Secondly, they don't.

Shove here. Charge higher flush draws/random c-betting hands to suck out. You're ahead of his range and a diamond A or K might kill you. This is a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you include AQo in villain's 3betting range, then i think you have to include TT, which increases our equity. secondly, there are only 6 combos of AdKx; AdQx (i don't think he calls with AxKd tbh). that's a very small range that we beat, and that by a very small margin to offset the times we're crushed by JJ, KK, AA.

I think this is a perfect place to exercise pot control, primarily because villain will let us know by the turn whether we're beat.