Typical situation - huge draw in position

[punter11235]

5/10 6max Party game.
Standard 2p2 TAG 22-17 raises UTG+1 and I call on the button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
The flop is :
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] POT : 95$

He bets 90$. Now:
a)I have very strong read that he will :
-He will bet pot on the turn with top pair , any draw and often air (but not too often)
-3bet me allin if I raise now with TP+ call with any lower pair and fold rest.
-If flush card comes he pay off only one bet but if 8 or 5 comes I stack his TP+ easily

How should I play my draw ?

b)I have very strong read that he will check-call turn for pot control with pair hands (and call river often enough if flush card wont came that bluffing is not profitable) and only 2nd barrel with monsters (KK+). He also 3bets me allin with top pair + and fold rest.
-Again he pays off only one bet if flush card comes but probably two bets (if not too large) with tp.

How should I play my draw now ?

I will post my thoughts on this later.

[CopTHIS]

Those reads are so specific that if you assign some intial range for villian you could fiddle with a spreadsheet and get a reasonably reliable answer. Of course, it's very hypothetical but would be useful to do.

[ogdundar]

This is just math. Do the work yourself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[axioma]

agree with the above. youve created so precise a situation that the rest is pretty trivial.

of course, im not convinced you can be anything like as confident in your reads as you seem to be.

[luckychewy]

1k stax? raise to $300 and if he calls and turn blanks take a free card, if you improve - shove turn. since you are pretty far ahead of his range and have good equity against almost everything i would just try to get as much money in as possible on the flop assuming 100bb.