World Cup top scorer - talk me out of this bet

[pureklas]

Come on mate, have you seen him play? Do you really think he is that good? Is odds are that high because it is unlikely he will be top goal scorer. Don't do it!!!

Teams to watch are Holland and Italy. Van Nistleroy has found his touch again in the recent friendlys. Italy usually have one goal scorer who score most of the teams goals Scap in '90, Vieri, Bagio etc. this year Toni is one to watch as he was the top scorer in serie A. Though Italy brought about 5 strikers with them and they are all quite good.

Adriano will probably be Brazil's top goal scorer, now that Ronaldo has picked up a slight knock and is fat/lazy.

Schevchenko isn't a bad bet Ukraine did really well in the qualifers and have a decent chance of winning their group. Ibrhamovich for sweden might be a decent outside bet. He links well with Larsson and the Swedes score goals. Though they havent played well in recent friendlies.

I think Henry is a poor bet as is any England player.

If your thoughts are still with Pauletta - i think Borgetti will score more goals than him!!! Pauletta sucks i hope i have changed your mind.

[NajdorfDefense]

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I am thinking of backing Pauleta of Portugal to be the top scorer at 29-1.

Portugal play Angola and Iran in their first two games. Hopefully he will get a hatful, and I can hedge it by laying him at a much cheaper price on betfair.

Thoughts?

Who are you backing for top scorer?

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While I think Ronaldo will score the most, there is no value there.

I like Luca Toni - Italy attacks a lot more and he can ring up a bunch of goals in the first round. If Italy wins the group he'll go against Japan/Croatia next. More goals.

Next I like Van Nistleroy - great striker, great team, occasionally can score at will. Con - Group of Death.

Raul would be my third betting choice. He will crash the net many times against Tunisia and the Saui Arabian team [no D]. In the second round he gets Swiss/Korea, neither of whom are that good.

Finally I'd look at Crespo, prolly not great odds, but Argentina has something to prove and can go to the Finals. If they win their group they get Mexico/Portugal next. Con - Group of Death.

Naj

[NajdorfDefense]

ocd: meant Torres, not Raul.

Naj

[ImBen]

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Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

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This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

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Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

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This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

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Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

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Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

[ImBen]

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Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

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Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

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Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%). It's terribly crushing that you think I'm wrong, but I will survive. I have already taken the appropriate World Cup positions, but thanks for the offer, red ass.

[NajdorfDefense]

I grabbed Klose as well on a whim at 25-1 at sia.com, better lucky than smart....

Naj

[NajdorfDefense]

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Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

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Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%).

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Really? Pls share with us the source of this market so that people who want to bet UKR can
a) benefit from much better odds, and
b) give YOU better odds on Tunisia to boot!

We all await your secret website with the massive arb on it.

All non-imaginary websites have UKR at 68% or so and Tunisia at 34%. I guess you like even money bets better than 2-1 in your favor. Smart!

[Freerollin`]

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Ukraine is unlikely to advance into the round of 16 and is one of the lowest scoring sides in the tournament. That bet is dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Ukraine is better than 50/50 to advance to the round of 16.

Jesse

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagreed. Tunisia is more likely to advance than Ukraine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop being a fool.

Ukraine is 70% to advance, Tunisia less than half that.

There are active markets on this stuff. Your opinion really doesn't matter unless you're a market maker.

You can wager as many thousands as you like at 2-1 that you Tunisia advances and Ukr does not. You should get on that.

I'll wager as much as I can on your even money on UKR v Tunisia who makes it out of the round-robin against you if you like. $10k a good start? Both advance is a push.

Naj

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Sports betting is an efficient market; what an adorable notion. Tunisia is slightly more likely than Ukraine to advance (52.8%/46.7%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Pls share with us the source of this market so that people who want to bet UKR can
a) benefit from much better odds, and
b) give YOU better odds on Tunisia to boot!

We all await your secret website with the massive arb on it.

All non-imaginary websites have UKR at 68% or so and Tunisia at 34%. I guess you like even money bets better than 2-1 in your favor. Smart!

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Naj, you're talking to a troll, a/k/a wasting your breath.

[tolga]

schevchenko+the ukranian women's shotput team are better than tunisia.