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#21
06-15-2006, 04:03 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
QT actually has more OESDs/gutshots: KJ, J9, J8, 98, versus Q9, 98, 87 [/ QUOTE ] Oops, I forgot K9 for JT. Anyway, QTxds and JTxds seems to me to be basically the same 'drawiness'. And I don't perceive there to be more hands that people defend with Q in them than with J in them. On the contrary, I think a J pairs more calling hands, because more Q hands will be 3-bet. 
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#22
06-15-2006, 06:29 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
seperate to the consideratino for peeling is how many outs you have and how good you are. I dont reembmer the exact hands or my reads, but do i have more good outs on avg in the A3 hand making a peel there better relative to that variable?
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#23
06-15-2006, 07:00 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On Hand2, a semibluff checkraise is getting followed by an autobet on the turn. You'll have to fold. With these (5/10) assumptions, peeling is incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] I don't remember the exact hand, but im certainly not auto-folding on the turn unimproved. In my games I'm often calling down with ace high. [/ QUOTE ] To those questioning, this is what I meant in my statement stox is doing 300/600 things at 5/10. Stox, I think calling down with ace high on that flop at 5/10 vs a random BB is a losing play, whereas I realize at 300/600 it has to be done at least on occasion. -DeathDonkey
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#24
06-15-2006, 08:35 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
seperate to the consideratino for peeling is how many outs you have and how good you are. I dont reembmer the exact hands or my reads, but do i have more good outs on avg in the A3 hand making a peel there better relative to that variable? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not following? I think my answer is 'no'? Both hands you have an ace, a backdoor flush draw, and there are two overcards to your kicker. Both boards seem equally drawy. Both are headsup CO steal situations. I guess with A3 you have a backdoor wheel draw.
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#25
06-15-2006, 08:51 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
I guess with A3 you have a backdoor wheel draw. [/ QUOTE ] And of course, better pot odds, because we're responding to a CR not a donk. I've always wondered about this actually. Logically, it should be the case that a donk would have more fold equity than a CR, because of this pot odds it presents. I've never seen this to be the case though. It seems like people just autoraise my donks whether they are ahead or not, putting me in an uncomfortable spot when I have either an unmade hand or a weak made one. And my feelign is that those rare occasions they actually straight-out fold are definately no more frequent than the times they would have folded to my CR, although I have no data mining to back up this claim.
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#28
06-16-2006, 09:37 AM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
cartman, what are your thoughts on these hands? your analysis and math is usually pretty rigorous, and it seems oddly missing in this thread. [/ QUOTE ] My math is present in its fullest glory, I just haven't had the free two hours to type it into a post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. In HAND 2, peeling with the intention of folding unimproved on the turn is certainly a mistake. Stox clarified above that he wasnt simply planning to fold unimproved and that he may be calling down. That is a more difficult problem to corner mathematically because it requires some knowledge on our part of his checkraising tendencies as well as contingency plans of which turn and river cards to call and which ones to fold, etc. Unless his range contains alot of air, however, I think that folding immediately to the flop checkraise is easily the highest EV play. HAND 1 is of course dependent upon our assessment of what he will donk with. If we knew he would never donk with a Q or better, then calling and folding unimproved would be very close to neutral EV. If we are at least tentatively planning on showing down, then the choice of whether to raise and take the free card or whether to just call is dependent primarily on the likelihood that he will 3-bet the flop or donk the turn. Against an aggressive opponent or against a chronic flop donker, I think raising would definitely be incorrect. But just as in HAND 2 I think that, unless his range contains alot of air, folding immediately is the highest EV play. Cartman
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#29
06-16-2006, 10:08 AM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
In HAND 2, peeling with the intention of folding unimproved on the turn is certainly a mistake. Cartman [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm, my math said differently. Did you find something wrong?
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#30
06-16-2006, 01:26 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
[ QUOTE ]
HAND 2: Stoxtrader open raises in the CO with As 3s and gets called only by the big blind. The flop is Jh Ts 2h and he says that if he gets checkraised he will certainly have to peel because big blind could be checkraising with a draw. [/ QUOTE ] Isn't our read here of how he plays missed draws key? In particular, will he fire 3 barrels with a missed draw? Would that be a good thing or bad thing for us? On the one hand, we'd always pay off his made hands by calling down; on the other, we can showdown A high and win a decent amount of the time. It seems the ideal oppo is one who gives up after the turn. Then we never have to pay a 3rd bet to see a showdown. Also, what about raising the turn?
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