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#111
10-18-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Dwight Howard is grossly overrated in fantasy. ... That said, he has a lot more value in a H2H league, so long as you're prepared for your draft, and don't spend the rest of the draft digging out of holes. If you're in a deep hole, then just forget about it. [/ QUOTE ] Okay so I'm in a H2H non-turnover league and here's how I'm thinking about it: he is a godlike rebounder, very good at FG% and blocks, and solid at points. Steals and assists are meh and 3PM=0, but that's the case for a lot of centers. All good so far, so FT% is the concern...but Howard is "very bad," not "historically abysmal." So what if I have someone like Kobe shooting just as many FTs as Dwight, but at 88% with Dwight at 58%? That's 73% on a ton of attempts--how bad is that? I know it's not great, but couldn't I still win this category from time to time? I understand the punting categories idea, but it seems to me that you can have Dwight Howard and still do okay in FT% if you happen to have someone else with an excellent percentage. And a lot of the studs qualify: Kobe, Arenas, Dirk, Nash. So in a non-turnover league, he strikes me as a pretty decent third-round pick. Anything wrong with this argument? [/ QUOTE ] How exactly are you planning on geting another stud and Howard? And yes you still could win it occassionally, but that still doesn't mean its a good thing. Your league not counting TOs does indeed help Howard's value. 
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#112
10-18-2007, 05:54 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
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[ QUOTE ] rookie draft for keeper league/... horford over oden?? 22 and 12 in limited minutes for big al 2.0 [/ QUOTE ] This is going to be a tough decision for me depending who falls to #3. If Oden/Durant go do I take Horford or Yi? And if Oden falls do I want to have a possibly injury prone player on my roster? Rut roh for me...At least I sent out my offer to Torre to see if he wants to coach the Artful Dodgers. [/ QUOTE ] 1. Durant 2. Oden 3. Horfort and I don't think any spot is really that close.
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#113
10-18-2007, 05:55 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
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wtf yi is terrible. playing behind bogut and villanueva, possibly other/better players. [/ QUOTE ] Didn't Krystkowiak only say that stuff to make sure their was competition in camp? Still a few days for me to straighten things out, but either way a big man has to fall to me in the rookie draft.
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#114
10-18-2007, 05:55 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Each player has value based on what they contribute. A significant portion of Kobe's value is FT%. Now you're taking Kobe and wasting a huge portion of his value because DH makes it all for naught (and 72% for a team is really poor). [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that's a different way to look at it...wasting Kobe as opposed to mitigating Howard. If 72% is really that bad, then Howard is less valuable than I thought. I don't have a good idea of the distribution of FT%. I'm in a 12-team league with 14 players/team, 9 of which are active spots (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util, Util). What would you expect the best team FT% to be? What would be an average FT%? [/ QUOTE ] Right. You can't throw away Howard's poor stats if you're going to end up compensating for them later. If you do throw out the categories, players like Kobe who have value in the categories you're throwing away become less valuable (i.e. Kobe w/o his value as a FT shooter) In my 12-team league with your settings, the worst FT shooting team last year was .742, the best FT shooting team was .799. The average of all 12 teams was .769. A great way to have a ton of value on your H2H team is to throw away a category or two. If you were to toss FT% and TO, you could realistically end up with Lebron in the first, Duncan in the second, Howard in the third, maybe Shaq later? and have a great team. [/ QUOTE ] I very much doubt Howard will lsat that long.
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#115
10-18-2007, 05:57 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] rookie draft for keeper league/... horford over oden?? 22 and 12 in limited minutes for big al 2.0 [/ QUOTE ] This is going to be a tough decision for me depending who falls to #3. If Oden/Durant go do I take Horford or Yi? And if Oden falls do I want to have a possibly injury prone player on my roster? Rut roh for me...At least I sent out my offer to Torre to see if he wants to coach the Artful Dodgers. [/ QUOTE ] 1. Durant 2. Oden 3. Horfort and I don't think any spot is really that close. [/ QUOTE ] My attempts to stir up controversy and lead to "WTFS???" is failing miserably.
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#116
10-18-2007, 06:02 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] rookie draft for keeper league/... horford over oden?? 22 and 12 in limited minutes for big al 2.0 [/ QUOTE ] This is going to be a tough decision for me depending who falls to #3. If Oden/Durant go do I take Horford or Yi? And if Oden falls do I want to have a possibly injury prone player on my roster? Rut roh for me...At least I sent out my offer to Torre to see if he wants to coach the Artful Dodgers. [/ QUOTE ] 1. Durant 2. Oden 3. Horfort and I don't think any spot is really that close. [/ QUOTE ] My attempts to stir up controversy and lead to "WTFS???" is failing miserably. [/ QUOTE ] I'll stir up some.... I bet you can't guess who is going to go #1 overall(unless someone takes me up on my trade offer).
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#117
10-18-2007, 06:05 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
Nik Caner-Medley?
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#118
10-18-2007, 06:11 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
I very much doubt Howard will lsat that long. [/ QUOTE ] Yahoo has him ranked 46th. Last year he provided per-game value in the 80-90th range (with FT% weighted per attempts). I've had 3 drafts and seen him gone 38th, 26th, 39th, in 9 category leagues of varying depth (14 team, 20 team, 12 team). It was an example, regardless, and even if Howard isn't there, find similar players who get great boosts from their value when TO/FT% are ignored (Okafor, Baron Davis, Jermaine, etc.)
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#119
10-18-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
weirdly in my competitive 12 team league dwight howard is DEFINATELY going first round. (likely 10th)
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#120
10-19-2007, 10:37 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
How exactly are you planning on geting another stud and Howard? [/ QUOTE ] I doubt Howard is getting picked before the third round in my Yahoo league. As was mentioned, he is ranked 45th on their default autodraft rankings, and I think a lot of my opponents are using those rankings as a guide. I pick 1.4 and am almost positive Howard will be there at 2.21. I was thinking about taking him at 3.28 but that FT% is just so awful and I'll probably get Arenas or Kobe in round 1 so I don't want to throw the FT% away.
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