tptk river decision

[soah]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $1,000.00
Hero (BB): $1,467.50
UTG: $1,098.00
CO: $783.20
BTN: $1,132.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $30.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $111.00</font>, BTN calls $81.00

Flop: ($227) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $155.00</font>, BTN calls $155.00

Turn: ($537) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($537) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $355.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $866.00</font>

it's $511 to call, so I need to be good about 25% of the time

when I joined this table, this guy was sitting out with a full stack, and there were three shortstacks playing badly. One of them ran his stack up a little bit, and the other two have been replaced by solid regs, so now the lineup is totally different and he sat in at some point during that transition. We haven't tangled at all and neither of us have been getting involved in big pots. I think he is TAG, but I haven't really observed any of his tendencies very closely due to small amount of time spent with him and because I've been paying more attention to some other tables where I've actually had some hands to play... fwiw, I got my stack by betting a gutshot from the bb in a limped pot and making straight over straight vs a halfstack

he was very slow in calling preflop, but his other actions have all been reasonably quick

[DJ Sensei]

its not AA/KK. could be QQ, could be a flush. Most likely in my book (or at least more than 25% of his range) is a floated pair/oesd that is turning itself into a bluff on that scary river card. So I call.

[Big_Jim]

Fold. He most likely has a flush, but it could be a boat or even a bare 6, and I don't think he's bluffing here ever, or raising a rare AQ for value.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
its not AA/KK. could be QQ, could be a flush. Most likely in my book (or at least more than 25% of his range) is a floated pair/oesd that is turning itself into a bluff on that scary river card. So I call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's gonna risk laying us such good odds?

Is there a better bet size we could have chosen to significantly either increase or decrease how often he's bluffing?

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
and I don't think he's bluffing here ever,

[/ QUOTE ]

why not?

and if your answer is that hands w/o sd value bet the turn, then htf can he have a flush?

[hockey1983]

why are you betting river here?? isn't check/call a better line a or check/fold. Obviously, you fired on flop and he called and you both checked turn...this line is so indicative of a possible flush draw. I don't think he's raising without the goods here. It would be huge spew on his part to raise river without a flush or set,2pair....can it be a bluff?? anything is possible, although very unlikely. I just think a c/c on river is a better line to take to control pot and not get into these tough decisions.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
why are you betting river here??

[/ QUOTE ]

value

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, you fired on flop and he called and you both checked turn...this line is so indicative of a possible pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

[hockey1983]

Soah, you don't get into these situations if you check/call river. That is a scared card for you and possibly him. I mean, villian could hold 10/10 i guess and try to get you to fold AQ but how does he know you don't have a flush. Please check/call on river. I think its fairly easy to assume he knows what you have as you cbet and then your card hit the river. Let's assume he has 10/10 here, why not call or fold river instead of trying to pull this off. Yeah i think it could be a bluff and its also likely your wb in this situation as well

[Big_Jim]

I guess it was mostly a question of the odds that he was laying, in my mind.

Good reasoning, I know.

That, and I don't usually give people credit for turning a made hand into a bluff in spots like these.

[DJ Sensei]

also i think a better river bet would be $250. he'll call like any pair, and you can more pleasantly call the shove.

I think I prefer that to a c/c, and I prefer c/c to a bigger lead. Problem with c/c is that he'll like NEVER turn a small-medium pair into a bluff here, so the only way to get value from those hands (which are a big part of his range) is to bet.