88 - probably just a math problem.

[milesdyson]

UTG is a TAG. Button is a 30/20/2 TAG over about 150 hands. Nothing stands out about button. He 3-bet my button steal once with A8o out of the BB, so basically nothing.

I don't know if he bets AK on the flop and my turn/river thinking hinges on how he plays 66/77/88 basically.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Button doesn't show.
Outcome: Button wins 11.50 BB. </font>

[SteveL91]

While you can make an argument for the river call given the size of the pot, I really don't see you taking this pot much more than ~5% of the time, if that. So, I think the river fold is fine, and I'd fold as well.

Also, I might consider a turn donk, but I'd only do that if I was very sure on how to handle a raise (read: if there's any doubt that I'd be able to fold, I wouldn't do it).

[londomollari]

I bet the flop. As played fold seems fine.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I flip my cards over. As played fold seems fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scary_Tiger]

I'd never fold river as played.

[Thorv]

Raise the flop, you monkey!

[drgfire]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop. As played fold seems fine.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't get this. As played, wouldn't it be correct to just fold the turn?

[Gurravasa]

This is not a mathproblem the problem is what you're doing on the turn. You call a 3-bet in BB with 88, fine. Then you pretty much get the flop you wanted, and then nothing? No bet, no raise just call,call and then most surprising of all fold on the river!!? I can't see any reason to call turn and then fold on river when that 7c falls. What card were you looking for on river that wouldn't make you fold? Did you think BTN 3-bet pf with a hand that just made a straight? Thats just very unlikely.

[slamhound]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a mathproblem the problem is what you're doing on the turn. You call a 3-bet in BB with 88, fine. Then you pretty much get the flop you wanted, and then nothing? No bet, no raise just call,call and then most surprising of all fold on the river!!? I can't see any reason to call turn and then fold on river when that 7c falls. What card were you looking for on river that wouldn't make you fold? Did you think BTN 3-bet pf with a hand that just made a straight? Thats just very unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

River fold has more to do with the frequency with which the button will bluff a worse hand on the river in a protected pot. Given the PF 3-bet and his range, he's not ahead very often at all on the river.

Obv. I'm calling river though, I think you see some retarded A-high hand that decided to follow through on a desperation bluff enough to justify a call. I don't play PS 5/10 though so I don't know how often that'll happen.

[mvoss]

I think the reason miles' folds the river is that he doesn't believe that BTN will ever bet all streets with UI overs in a multiway pot.

I'd need a very strong read to take this line, I do think that a lot of 30/20 players are capable of taking this line with overs or PP's down to 66 (maybe even 55?), but obviously that 7 is not a very good card for you.