UFC 76

[billygrippo]

well i dont think chuck will win 65% of the time so im hoping for an upset

shogun however will absolutely win this fight :P i dont think there is a good match up for him alive right now at 205

[billygrippo]

havent bet yet

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it is.

the argument may be that given these players styles, the edge the one has over the other is diminished. similar to the way NL heads up matches are effected by how deep of stacks you start off with, one could imagine a deep stack expert experiencing higher variance if he started playing HU matches with half as many BB.

it is this decrease in the edge over one's opponent which increases variance (similar to the way a binomial random variable's variance increases as the probability of a successful trial approaches 50%).

to state it the other way around isn't sound.


ie

you guys say this guy hasn't taken many losses, so consider two players each with the following record (played against the same opponents in the same setting):

WWWWLWWLWWWWLLWW

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

[billygrippo]

[ QUOTE ]

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would argue that an expert at striking has higher variance than a ground expert

there is an element of luck in striking that doesnt carry over well into ground work

edit:

maybe i read your post wrong but what im saying is:

good striker vs good striker = higher variance

good grappling vs good grappling = lower variance

[trixtrix]

for anyone interested in diego sanchez, i'm willing to give you +115 up to 1k worth of a side bet on this card. (ie: i take -115 on fitch to win 1k) we'll get someone reputable to hold the money as this bet should settle relatively quickly..

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
for anyone interested in diego sanchez, i'm willing to give you +115 up to 1k worth of a side bet on this card. (ie: i take -115 on fitch to win 1k) we'll get someone reputable to hold the money as this bet should settle relatively quickly..

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhm, I'd like my -100 action on Fitch to be fullfilled first. and my -270 on Liddell. +360 for forrest i"ll take as well. No I'm not joking, and I have the money in Full Tilt poker, that's the only neutral place i can use.

[trixtrix]

why would someone take +100 on diego when i'm offering +115?

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360


[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you taking the worst odds with all three bets?

[billygrippo]

i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
i only have money on wsex and my sportsbetting roll is super tiny [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad beat.