Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[BobboFitos]

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Another note: (I have class until midday and I expect I'll give my thoughts then, some people have the exact right answers for each question but no one has gotten them "all" right =) ) Why do people think the nit has a flush draw in hand 3? I am very clear on his range here, so there are 3 combos of suited aces he could have, (AT, AJ, AQ), when I say his range "could" be wider due to UTG's presence, it's possible (like cold calling AK and not reraising, for example) but this is also unlikely. So on the turn assume he has a flush draw less then 10% of the time. Although his line would be somewhat consistant with KQs, AQs, AJs, and ATs.

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I find the range a little nonsensical. What kind of nit calls a raise OOP with ATo? He's your nit, so I guess we should let you pick.


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I think I didnt specify when I said AQ-AT, but I meant suited. I dont think he has ATo here on the flop all that often, and cerainly he always folds that to the cbet.

[Maulik]

#1 - I always call the flop for because the turn goes check/check some of the time.

[Maulik]

#2 - I fold
#2 - I fold, becuase he's loose.

[Novles]

3. Shoving looks good if his range truly is AsQs, AsTs, 88,66,22, and JJ-99.

He’ll fold JJ-99 and AsQs/AsJs/AsTs (21 total combos) because he’s a nit and he’ll only call with flopped sets (9 total combos).

So, roughly 70% of the time, we pick up the $120 in the pot.

The other 30% of the time, we are a 3:1 dog against sets. 75% of the time we lose $207 and 25% of the time we win $283.

So, the EV of the push is $58. ($120 * .70) – .3($207 * .75) + .3($283 * .25) = $58.

I don’t know, maybe I did the math wrong here, cuz that seems awfully high.

[bilbo-san]

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#1 - I always call the flop for because the turn goes check/check some of the time.

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If I were villain with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I'd often check the turn, and wouldn't really care if it gets checked through, tbh.

I'm not sure a free turn card is really what you are looking for.

[ValarMorghulis]

Hand 1.
Fold. Very tempted to call the bet here. We've got very close to correct direct odds and BB looks strong so we should be able to get paid some. But taking into account the times he has AcXc and the times we flush and the board pairs and we get stacked I think a fold is in order. With a better read on the villain we could consider pushing.

2. SubQuestion, fold as default.
C/raise to maybe 80ish. Seems button will float often. If he calls the raise overcards might still be good. Or else we have the gutshot to rely on. But, c/fold and double barrelling are fine too.

3. I guess BBs range is 99-JJ,88,66,22. He could easily slowplay sets on this board especially so as not to scare away the bad player. And with 99-JJ, he could bet the King as a blocker. Against the sets we have odds to call the turn if we stacked him most of the time on the river. Against 99-JJ, a push on the turn would be sweet. I think you have to fold.

[Mossberg]

I'm just going to hold off on responding while I think about this a bit more.

[AsydRayne]

A lot of people are putting the nit on an underpair on the turn and I don't buy it. Why would he suddenly get aggressive when the king comes out? I would expect a nit to get scared when an overcard hits. I'm thinking KQs or a set that he slowplayed on the flop to let the donk in.

[rockusteady]

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A lot of people are putting the nit on an underpair on the turn and I don't buy it. Why would he suddenly get aggressive when the king comes out? I would expect a nit to get scared when an overcard hits. I'm thinking KQs or a set that he slowplayed on the flop to let the donk in.

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I think most of the time he is going to bet that turn regardless of what it is, to see where he stands. That's kinda the nature of the block bet.

A lot of people are saying that they don't understand why we can't put him on a king on the turn. I want to know what hand calls the flop and hits the turn.

I think putting him on only KQs and sets is really tight. Nits don't always have the nuts when they bet.

A nit almost never calls with AK oop on that flop with a fish yet to act.

K8? There is no way a nit calls that pf.

99-QQ makes a lot of sense and is a huge part of his range, IMHO.

and like we said, if he calls our shove, we have anywhere between 6-8 outs.

[paulw]

On hand 2, people are saying its not a good card to 2nd barrell on (I haven't read every reply tho), is 2nd barrelling here for ~30 trying to rep AA-TT really bad / to unbelieveable?