15/30 deep bluff

agoldenbear · #1 11-26-2007, 02:58 AM

i like your donk lead here, opponents are likely to give you credit for a two-pairish hand or a big draw (54s, JTs, QJs, J9s, QTs etc) leading into a pf raiser and two callers from OOP. BB calls with a pf raiser and another caller yet to act, an action that seemingly narrows his range down to 33, or one of the big draws I listed above. He probably woldn't flat call your bet with any two pair hands.

BB's weak stab when checked to on turn really suggests a suited jack or a marginal Ax hand i think. your c/r is nice and standard, reps a hand big enough to risk him checking behind, something like 54s, 33, maybe AJ.

Obviously by the river his calling range is about two hands, 54s and 33 for a total of two combinations. His suited jacks and Ax hands comprise a much bigger part of his range, which, coupled with his passive line, makes me think you will pick up this pot often enough. Although your pushing range is really polarized, his calling range is so small i think it's a decent spot to put your money in with 8 high.

fslexcduck · #2 11-26-2007, 03:03 AM

ok i dont know anything about the villain but i'm really snap calling K high here. i hate it when ppl say that when a bluff hand is posted but i'm legit, i really mean it, etc etc etc. this bluff sucks. sorry man.

agoldenbear · #3 11-26-2007, 03:20 AM

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ok i dont know anything about the villain but i'm really snap calling K high here. i hate it when ppl say that when a bluff hand is posted but i'm legit, i really mean it, etc etc etc. this bluff sucks. sorry man.

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how did you get to the river with K high? KTs? you think he's calling with Jxs and Ax?

edit: i will admit that BB's willingness to cold call your 3/4 psb in such [censored] relative postition makes me think he's slowplaying, but his turn play is so bad if we have the sort of hand we actually have that I want to give him credit enough to just be straightforwardly playing a big draw. And by the river, if he's got the nuts or 54s then cool. you tried.

EC10 · #4 11-26-2007, 03:32 AM

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ok i dont know anything about the villain but i'm really snap calling K high here.

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sn plz

Rosslex · #5 11-26-2007, 10:45 AM

Agreed, dislike the line. If gonna bluff it I would have check raised the flop and lead pot bet on turn. As played I would have check called the turn. As said above, the 3 is a terrible river bluff card.

He has called off half his stack effectively so he is not folding the river...NB: I don't see him having a flush draw here or even a rag Ace...I think he thinks he is trapping flop and leading turn to protect against the draws. I'm guessing he flopped a set, tho if he is a total donk station I'm guessing he has AT - in which case he is caling river with both possiblities.

The key to the hand imo is the c/r was a big mistake, compounded by the bad river bluff card.

TheWorstPlayer · #6 11-26-2007, 11:44 AM

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ok i dont know anything about the villain but i'm really snap calling K high here.

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sn plz

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just look for the player with 95% went to showdown.

Lagtastic · #7 11-26-2007, 01:23 PM

I actually think he is kinda weak on the turn. I'd say there is a decent chance he has a high flush draw/gutterball combo.

Rosslex · #8 11-26-2007, 01:37 PM

If you think he has a missed combo draw then would if be smart to check call the river as you have the best possible missed fl. draw? Hoping villain recognises his only chance to win is to bet. If he checks back then u make no money, if has nothing then he is not calling you AI anyway. How about check call AI to maximise value?

Would be a hilarious line to take and a brilliant one if your read was spot on! Type in what you think he has before you call to justify it and minimise any flaming afterwards lol. A 'don't mess with me' check calldown FTW ;-)

In terms of playing the hand again though the check raise flop, lead turn is a more believeable play imo. See the '25/50 v traheho standard no?' thread. It is a very similar hand in terms of lines to take and believability... even though in that case the hero has a big hand - thus emphasising that the check rasie flop lead turn is a stronger looking play.

evanski · #9 11-26-2007, 09:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ok i dont know anything about the villain but i'm really snap calling K high here. i hate it when ppl say that when a bluff hand is posted but i'm legit, i really mean it, etc etc etc. this bluff sucks. sorry man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Theres no way this is right. If youre BB, your estimate of heros range is greater than 33% busted draws? Maybe people are saying this bluff wont work because people arent willing to make tough folds after they call the turn in this spot, but seriously, this line looks SUPER strong.

TheWorstPlayer · #10 11-27-2007, 01:04 AM

op, you think samh is a nit? interesting...