50NL: AA facing heat on coordinated flop

[squashington]

Villain is 33/5 over 60 hands. Is this fold too nitty? The situation seemed too marginal to commit to a 150BB+ pot.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($44.35)
Hero ($51.85)
MP ($51.55)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($40.65)</font>
Button ($46.25)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($50)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $2.75</font>, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $16.75</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $13.25

[Suited_Queens]

33/5... I don't think he has a tendency to call preflop with small PP's or small SC's, someone correct me if I'm wrong. Have you seen this person slow play big hands at all? This could be QQ-KK but without solid reads I am playing this the same way you did.

[JROK777]

I fold. Sets are a big part of villians range. He made a huge raise for a donk. Most donls who are drawing flat call or min raise min/cr OOP.

[Quester]

What is villain's postflop AF?

Also, did the converter mess up? The preflop action makes no sense.

[wingchunflush]

if he just limped in the CO there is no way he has QQ-KK I say you fold here, way to often he has a set. Best case scenario is that he has a hand like 78 for a pair and open ender, but I dont think he has that enough to warrant a call.

[Milky]

Easy fold I think, unless he' super aggro or something.

[Daniel LeClaire]

Surprised to see everyone saying fold. I probably shove here.

[orig!naL]

[ QUOTE ]
Surprised to see everyone saying fold. I probably shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

with 5% raising, this villain is probably raising AA-JJ and AK or AA-TT or something along those lines. Potentially, you are only ahead of 88 and 99 here, which have 32% and %16 chance of hitting their straight respectively.

Unless he has some sort of garbage hand like A7, this really looks like a set.

Thats the reasoning behind why I would probably fold. It would of course depend on villains AF.

[squashington]

Villain was in the CO and I was in BB. His total AF was 2.43. He open limped 77 from the CO a few orbits prior. (I was unaware of this at the time)

A shove is getting called 100% of the time. Almost always by a pair + OESD or better. I think if we do continue the hand calling the raise and pushing the turn would be our best line. If he does have something like pair+draw his hand loses a lot of value if he blanks the turn.

Here's my weighted equity estimates:

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
56,430 evaluations, 57 hole card combos

Board: 5c 6d 7s

Wins Ties Equity
32.73% 2.01% 34.74% ( AsAh )
63.24% 2.01% 65.26% ( 55, 66, 77, 87(50), 88(50), 99(25), 76, 65, 44(50) )

[Suited_Queens]

BUMP! I'd like to hear more opinions on this hand.

Given this new information I would say it's a definite fold for me.