A5 Blind Steal Live 10/20 Motor City

[JJH3984]

Started playing live a bit in the summer and this is a hand where I thought I should have put one more bet in on a big street.

Table is playing somewhat nitty compared to most live 10/20 games I've been in. Blinds are getting chopped 2-3 times per down. In this hand Button is a tight passive, SB is somewhat loose and very passive, and BB is the villian, a TAG who from what I've seen, seems to play his hands well and understands how to extract value from flop/turn combination play (if anything he tends to call threebets on the flop and raise turns with big hands too much rather than just capping the flop).

My image is super nitty.

Folded to me in the CO and I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB and BB both call.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me. I bet. SB calls. BB check raises. I three-bang. SB folds. BB calls

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to me. I bet. BB check raises again. I think about threebetting but wuss out and call.

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
He bets. I call.


Now I'm pretty sure this is a spot where I should raise the river. (rather than the turn) What do you guys think?

[BigBadBabar]

many more bets need to go in imo
we're putting him on jj? i 3bet turn.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
many more bets need to go in imo
we're putting him on jj? i 3bet turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the flop/turn play, if more than three bets go in on any big street, I'm not very happy about it.


edit: let me rephrase; I will never put more than 5 BB into the turn/river given how he played the flop. For my money, it should be either 3bet and calldown a cap or raise river call a threebet. If I'm wrong someone please tell me.

Of course I did none of those things cuz i'm a pussy and out of practice.

FWIW he never has JJ here. I think he range after the turn checkraise is probably like some connecting fives, and some suited fives and maybe pocket fours discounted. Also AJ discounted.

[B_Movie_Fan]

I fold preflop.

As played, I would 3bet the turn. He won't show up with JJ (reraise pf) or J5 (he's a TAG). The only hand that worries me is 54s, but that is only one of a large number of hands he could play this way that you beat.

As played, I'd raise that river, get 3-towned, and make a crying call to see his 75s.

[chimpanzepoopdic]

Im 3-betting this turn, if he makes it 4 Im calling down without improvement. If he simply calls my 3-bet and checks the river Im bet-calling and if he bets into me on the river after calling my 3-bet Im just calling.

[KitCloudkicker]

PF fine given your image and table conditions, as your steal success rate should be quite good.

Personally, I would call the flop raise and raise the turn, thereby getting more value from hands we have crushed (like a pocket pair, mediocre jack, etc).

Back to your action. Your flop 3 bet looks like QQ, KK, AA, and when you get check raised again, my guess is the BB is raising a weaker 5 as he's putting you on an ovpr. Raise the turn and possibly go to war...his read is wrong [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
PF fine given your image and table conditions, as your steal success rate should be quite good.

Personally, I would call the flop raise and raise the turn, thereby getting more value from hands we have crushed (like a pocket pair, mediocre jack, etc).

Back to your action. Your flop 3 bet looks like QQ, KK, AA, and when you get check raised again, my guess is the BB is raising a weaker 5 as he's putting you on an ovpr. Raise the turn and possibly go to war...his read is wrong [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the flop/turn line if the weak passive isn't still in the hand. He's cold calling a ton when i threebet the flop and might fold if i raise the turn. Yr right about the turn though. I hadn't defined my hand clearly enough. I don't know about "going to war". If my image is nitty, his range converges with mine around when he fourbets the turn.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
My image is super nitty.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this consistent with how he views you preflop? if so, it's a huge factor in the equation. it could easily make him overplay a hand he thinks is best. worse trips would be an obvious example. maybe even a pp, in an attempt to drive your overcards out or push you off of a hand.

if he is capable of folding significantly weaker hands on the turn to a 3bet(assuming we can assign a good portion of them to his range), calling and raising the river isn't too bad. that said, the pot is pretty big, and taking it down right now on fourth with a 3bet isn't the most horrible thing that would happen tonight.

[sharpie]

I think he has worse trips alot. You're only really beat if he has J5s or 54s. Treyball the turn.

[ProfessorBen]

There is no reason not to 3-bet the turn. Given the blind steal situation and the character of the board, you're still getting a call-down a significant amount of the time. If you wait to raise the river, he's significantly less likely to 3-bet, but when he does, you're much less likely to be good.