Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Poker Discussion > Poker Theory

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-11-2007, 07:41 PM
g4rb0 g4rb0 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 11
Default bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

I know this is a very general question, but does anyone have any in-depth theory on amounts to bet or raise when you have a good/ok hand. How do you chose a bet that asks your opponent how strong he is? I know the typical answer would be "it depends" which is very true, but if you could give a few situations maybe where you explain how you work out the right size bet. I believe this is one of the major skills involved to maximize profits and minimize losses and believe the way I'm doing it is inefficient. I simply make sure all the draws are paying bad pot odds to see the next card. How does pot size, and players in the pot determine your bet? How do you chose bet sizes on the flop that help you determine how strong your opponent is without scaring him off if you have a good hand? or if you are actually beat, how do you make sure you bet an efficient amount that will lose you minimum money if your behind for the situation?

One of the situations that is costing me the most money at the moment is having a hand like 6/7 and calling cheap to see the flop in mid/late position and hitting top pair, and sometimes even trips and lose to a better kicker, or laying it down because I don't know where I am in the hand. I feel when a flop comes something like 2/5/7 rainbow I have to bet (is this the correct thing to do against small players to the flop AND large amounts of players to the flop?), but When I bet I cant chose an amount that lets me know if he has me beat calling with a hand like 7/A or calling the bet with a hand like 3/4 with the straight draw.

Would really love to hear your opinions on this topic

Steve
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-11-2007, 08:09 PM
house_of_cash house_of_cash is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 3
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

For me, the kind of bet I would make in a situation like your example depends mostly on who is still in the hand. If I decide to bet it (which is likely if the opposition is weak), then I might be inclined to make a bet that is larger than the usual probe/continuation type bet, probably pot sized, instead of 50-75% of the pot. That should let me have a better idea of where I stand in the hand, too. Many will probably say that is too aggressive and puts too many chips at risk. Depends too on whether we're talking tourney or cash.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-11-2007, 10:30 PM
deucethree deucethree is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 81
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

This is a generic answer, but it's a pretty complex question. I think start with half the pot and have a reason to deviate from that. Half pot bets are rarely that "wrong" when it comes to bet sizing.

If you have 67, flop trips, and are behind you just got cold decked for the most part. Sometimes you have to pay off or you just aren't playing well.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-12-2007, 05:30 AM
g4rb0 g4rb0 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 11
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

Just had another situation where I felt I played it wrong again! I had JJ, opponent is a loose caller and in late position. Im playing .12/.25 cents cash 10man ring game. I raise $1 preflop, he calls. Flop is 443 rainbow, i bet $2 on the flop, he calls. Turn is a 5. I now bet $5 and he calls, then we both check the river (he shows a2). I feel in this situation I could have lost less money on the turn, maybe should bet 3.50, and if he calls you can be quiet sure hes made something. What are your opinions?

thanks, Steve
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-12-2007, 05:55 AM
Dov Dov is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Won\'t be long now...
Posts: 1,639
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

Your question is the main reason that the books say you need lots of playing experience.

The amount you bet should depend on what you are trying to achieve.

In this case, you say that you are trying to find out where you stand in the hand. The amount of money you need to bet to find this out will be different every time. This is b/c people play for different reasons, have differing skill levels and abilities, and different reasons for playing the hand. In order to know how much to bet, you really need to find out why your opponent played his hand in the first place. This hand reading only comes after a lot of practice.

I'm assuming that you are already putting your opponents on hand ranges. Some of the most important factors to consider are:

VPIP
Do they play position well?
Are they generally weak postflop?
Have you ever seen them c/r bluff?
Do they often show down A high type hands?

Don't forget that you want to win money, not chase everyone out of the pot. That means that you need to know what is reasonable to call yourself.

You should try to make them call unprofitably with the bottom of their range, profitably with the top, and break even about 2/3 of the way up, if you think they're drawing.

if you think that they think they have the best hand, and you know you can beat it, then bet as much as you think they will call with the intention of getting it all in the middle at some point.

if you have no idea where you stand but still have a showable hand, make a bet that makes it unprofitable for them to call with most draws ( anything less than 8 outs ), and if they do call, be prepared to fold if the draw hits, or if they show a lot of aggression later. You will sometimes fold the winner, but that's the game. Especially OOP.

You should look in the NL Forum for blocking bets too. These bets are designed to make sure you only lose a certain amount / street.

Unfortunately at limits this low, a combination of things makes it difficult to put opponents on hands. They don't know what they're doing, don't care, and are just curious. A big bet relative to the pot doesn't mean anything to these guys b/c the pot doesn't mean anything to them either.

That's why at these limits, you often won't know exactly where you stand.

Sorry for rambling. Hope something here helps.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-12-2007, 07:56 AM
insyder19 insyder19 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 517
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

I heard Harrington says that to bet half pot is always better than pot, if you have a better hand than your opponent, because half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw.

Any thoughts?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-12-2007, 08:55 AM
mr_hanky mr_hanky is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 38
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

[ QUOTE ]
I heard Harrington says that to bet half pot is always better than pot, if you have a better hand than your opponent, because half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw.

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

But at the micro stakes in question they will call a much bigger bet than half-pot. So we win more by building bigger pots when we know we have the best hand.

And your statement "half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw." is wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-12-2007, 12:42 PM
deucethree deucethree is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 81
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

[ QUOTE ]

And your statement "half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw." is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but it does give the wrong odds to almost all draws. If the pot is heads up it rarely gives a player the correct odds to hit on that next street. You'd be giving 3-1 on a call so only big combo draws would have the right odds.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-12-2007, 12:53 PM
El_Hombre_Grande El_Hombre_Grande is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: On another hopeless bluff.
Posts: 1,091
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

And your statement "half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw." is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but it does give the wrong odds to almost all draws. If the pot is heads up it rarely gives a player the correct odds to hit on that next street. You'd be giving 3-1 on a call so only big combo draws would have the right odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong for NL. Implied odds matter. They matter alot. 3-1 is nothing to lay if your opponent(s) is/are one(s) that will give you substantial action when you hit.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-12-2007, 01:06 PM
deucethree deucethree is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 81
Default Re: bet sizes to maximize profits, and minimize losses (intresting)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

And your statement "half pot never gives him odds for calling with any draw." is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but it does give the wrong odds to almost all draws. If the pot is heads up it rarely gives a player the correct odds to hit on that next street. You'd be giving 3-1 on a call so only big combo draws would have the right odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong for NL. Implied odds matter. They matter alot. 3-1 is nothing to lay if your opponent(s) is/are one(s) that will give you substantial action when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would mean your play on future streets is poor, not that your bet size was incorrect.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:42 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.