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  #1  
Old 11-15-2007, 09:41 PM
TheRing TheRing is offline
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Default Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

I have a few questions based on these numbers for Heads Up hold ‘em and Omaha tournaments. I am trying to build my bankroll up, and I want to know when I should move up to the next level.

Also, I am playing on Fulltilt, so I play 6+25 HU. The next level is 11+50. That seems weird, more relative rake. Should I skip that level, or is it worth it based on the increased number of games I can play. Or, can I only figure this out by playing?

Last, how many matches do I need to play to have a good idea of me true ROI. 500? 5000? I don’t feel comfortable moving up levels without being confident I was profitable (positive true ROI) in the level before.

I have played 77 HU tournaments and won 62.3% for an ROI of 19.69%

My bankroll is up to $191.

Follow my $10 - $10,00 experiment at theringsadventure.blogspot.com/
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  #2  
Old 11-16-2007, 11:36 AM
czyivn czyivn is offline
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Default Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

How do you figure more relative rake? 6+25 is 19%, 11+50 is 18%.
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  #3  
Old 11-16-2007, 12:04 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

The standard deviation in a HU SNG is about 1 buy-in. It's slightly less because of the rake and your skill advantage, e.g., in a $6+$0.25 SNG, the standard deviation is $12 * sqrt(p (1-p)). If you win 60% of the time, that is a standard deviation of $5.88 or 0.94 buy-ins.

After n tournaments, the standard deviation of your observed win rate is (SD per tournament)/sqrt(n). A rough 95% confidence interval is your observed result +- 2 standard deviations. In your case, that would be about 20% +- 2 * 94%/sqrt(77) ~ 20% +- 21%. So, at this point you are just starting to have strong evidence that you are a winning player. To narrow the confidence interval by a factor of 2, you need to play 4 times as many tournaments.

Here is a general post on rational bankroll requirements, and here is a follow-up on using this to decide which stakes to play, given that your win rate drops in higher stakes games. It will be a while before you can use those, since they require estimates of your win rate.
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  #4  
Old 11-16-2007, 04:30 PM
DrVanNostrin DrVanNostrin is offline
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Default Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure more relative rake? 6+25 is 19%, 11+50 is 18%.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP means 6 + 0.25 and 11 + 0.5.
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  #5  
Old 11-17-2007, 03:16 AM
JABoyd JABoyd is offline
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Default Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

TheRing,

I have really good EXCEL workbook that I wrote to analyze heads up play. Let me know if you want it.
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  #6  
Old 11-17-2007, 04:43 AM
pococurante pococurante is offline
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Default Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

Don't skip levels, you want to move up slowly and gradually.
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