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#1
11-15-2007, 11:55 AM
 shark steak Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 16
2 pair

SO I have been thinking about how to make my game better and I came up with a question.
if I am holding 2 low suited cards what % will I out flop my opponent who is holding for 1 example high pocket pair and for another high cards.
(would like to see the math please)

what are my odds alone to flop 2 pair or a flush draw/made flush? do I take that and -the chance of him winning after I outfloped him in order to decide on how much i can call per. (I know there are other things to consider)
comments on this would be great
#2
11-16-2007, 12:29 AM
 pococurante Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: VA Posts: 138
Re: 2 pair

1 in 119 to flop a flush
1 in 9.1 to flop a flush draw
1 in 50 to flop two pair
1 in 74 to flop trips

There is almost no reason to play low cards in this spot unless you know for sure you'll get an entire stack if you hit the flop.

Even if you flop two pair, you're less than 75% to win the pot.
#3
11-16-2007, 07:27 AM
 shark steak Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 16
Re: 2 pair

ok, lets just say, I know he has high pocket and the stakes I am playing people dont fold an overpair they will call/bet atleast half of his x100 bb stack.
I am calling him after a x4 raise.
am I winning money by calling?
#4
11-16-2007, 11:40 AM
 sixhigh Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Highway 61 Posts: 1,778
Re: 2 pair

With a sc you will outflop an overpair approx. 10% of the time. The times you do outflop it you will win approx. 80% of the time. Those are some rough estimations, but def. not way off.

Say you fold every time you miss, then you are losing 4BB 90% of the time. And say you get it all in on the flop the 10% of the time you flop 2pair or better.

When the remaining stack is n BB you will win n BB 80% of the time and lose n BB 20% of the time.

So your EV overall is: 90%*(-4) + 10%*(80%*(+n) + 20%*(-n)) = 90%*(-4)+6%*(+n)

So the break even point would be n = 60.

So if he is willing to put in at least 60BB regardless of the flop texture and always holds a big pair when he raises, calling for twopair+ value becomes +ev.
#5
11-19-2007, 08:19 AM
 punter11235 Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Check out my blog Posts: 3,239
Re: 2 pair

Hi

[ QUOTE ]
2 low suited cards what % will I out flop my opponent who is holding for 1 example high pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

With say 74s you will flop 2pair or better 5.2% of the time. With 76s its 5.9%. Those are numbers assuming he has AA.

[ QUOTE ]
what are my odds alone to flop 2 pair or a flush draw/made flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair : 2%
Flush draw : 10.9%
Flush : 0.8%

[ QUOTE ]
With a sc you will outflop an overpair approx. 10% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
Where did you find that ? I am pretty sure it is wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
So if he is willing to put in at least 60BB regardless of the flop texture and always holds a big pair when he raises, calling for twopair+ value becomes +ev.

[/ QUOTE ].

This is WAY off. Lets say he has AA. You have 7s6s. You call 4BB raise (lets say its 40\$ in 5\$/10\$ game). He always pushes allin on the flop and you call with : 2pair+. You lose 1.8BB with 100BB stacks. Break even point is around 105BB. Adding combo draws to pushing range does not help much (as most of them are underdogs enough to AA to make pushing not profitable and those who have enough equity are rare).

You can see more of those here.
If you have more questions of this kind just post them here or on linked blog. I will answer if I have a moment.

Take care,
punter
#6
11-19-2007, 11:26 AM
 sixhigh Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Highway 61 Posts: 1,778
Re: 2 pair

[ QUOTE ]
Where did you find that ? I am pretty sure it is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't look too convincing, I admit. 6% feels more like it.

I just stoved my hand versus AA on a three-deuce board and figured this would be a close approximation for the probability to outflop the overpair.

Board: 2c 3s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 89.476% 89.19% 00.29% 324936 1044.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 10.524% 10.24% 00.29% 37296 1044.00 { 98s }

Why does this method differ from your calculations by so much? I'm probably overlooking a pretty simple point.
#7
11-19-2007, 11:42 AM
 punter11235 Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Check out my blog Posts: 3,239
Re: 2 pair

The equity is higher on 2 3 board because :
a)you took 2 cards out of the deck so probability of 3 following hitting your hands is higher than with 48card deck (here you are dealing 3 more cards from 46 instead of 48 , you removed 2 "useless" cards from the deck)
b)sometimes 23456 straight tie the board.

a) is more important by a lot;
#8
11-19-2007, 11:56 AM
 sixhigh Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Highway 61 Posts: 1,778
Re: 2 pair

Thanks. Yet there's no software that calculates equity until the flop or turn, no?
#9
11-19-2007, 12:03 PM
 punter11235 Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Check out my blog Posts: 3,239
Re: 2 pair

[ QUOTE ]
Yet there's no software that calculates equity until the flop or turn, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean by equity by flop or turn ? Dealing only 3 or 4 cards ? I can make my program to calculate "equity" with only 3 or 4 cards board pretty easily but what would be use for that ?
#10
11-19-2007, 12:22 PM
 sixhigh Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Highway 61 Posts: 1,778
Re: 2 pair

It would be at least somewhat useful to be able to know how often I will outflop a certain range with any given hand. For example whether it's +ev to call a raise preflop with 75s getting 16:1 implied odds when the pfr is a nit.
For pure setvalue we need at least like 12:1 implied odds, for 2pair+ we will need like ...?

What's the general purpose of your program?

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